Vietnam Insight

▶ During Thursday's trading session (February 12th), the market continued its upward trend, however liquidity dropped sharply, by more than 50% compared to recent sessions. The main driving force supporting the index came from the VinGroup stocks, with VIC increasing by 4.51% and VHM by 1.17%. While the banking sector showed slight divergence, the oil and gas sector performed positively with PVD increasing by 1.69% and BSR by 1.92%. In addition, foreign investors continued to maintain a net buying position, although the trading value decreased compared to the previous session, mainly concentrated in VIC (VND 202 billion) and GMD (VND 116 billion).

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index increased by 17.24 points (+0.96%), closing at 1,814.09 points; The HNX-Index increased by 0.62 points (+0.24%), reaching 256.48 points. Total market liquidity reached 17 trillion VND, a sharp decrease compared to the previous session, corresponding to over 0.57 billion shares traded. Foreign investors continued to net buy 342 billion VND, with significant net buying recorded in VIC, GMD, and NLG. Conversely, typical net selling was seen in ACB, FPT, and VCB.

▶ Technical perspective: The VN-Index continued its strong upward trend, closing above 1,800 points, primarily driven by blue-chip stocks. Liquidity decreased sharply compared to previous sessions, which is understandable given the approaching long holiday. In the short term, the market may experience some volatility as it approaches the important MA20 resistance level around 1,824. Looking more broadly, the VN-Index is currently fluctuating within an upward trend channel. Technical indicators, after touching the oversold zone, are showing improvement. If this signal is strengthened, the VN-Index will enter a period of equilibrium, opening up clearer room for recovery.

From a statistical perspective, we track the percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day moving average (EMA50) as an indicator to identify market bottoms. Historically, the VN-Index typically confirms a bottom when this percentage fluctuates between 30% and 40%, peaking around 60-70%. With the current figure at around 40-45%, the data suggests there is still room for growth for most stocks.

Strategy: Correction sessions present opportunities for investors to increase their positions. We recommend focusing on stocks with good business results and promising growth prospects in 2026 but which have not yet experienced corresponding growth, such as private banking, retail, securities, and steel. Stocks showing positive growth potential, such as state-owned banks and industrial real estate stocks, require selective evaluation and avoiding chasing high prices.