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Highlights: Today (May 12), the US and China announced that the two countries have agreed to significantly reduce tariffs on each other’s goods for an initial period of 90 days. US inflation unexpectedly eased in April, rising only 2.3% year-on-year, below the Dow Jones forecast of 2.4%.   Technical view: The VN-Index closed the week at 1,301.3 points (+34.09 points; +2.69%) with sharply increased liquidity. The market’s uptrend this week showed better breadth as many blue-chip stocks in the banking, retail, and information technology sectors rose by 3–4%. However, profit-taking signals appeared on Friday, after the index had already gained for two consecutive weeks. In the base-case scenario, we expect the market to trade within the range of 1,260 to 1,300.   Investment ideas: Investors are advised to reduce weightings or take profits on short-term holdings in the coming week. At the same time, there remain opportunities in sectors such as industrial parks and exports (which have not yet seen significant recovery recently), amid tariff negotiations favorable to Vietnam.

Stable performance. US stock futures were flat on Friday, following a fourth consecutive gain for the S&P 500 as optimism over the US-China trade deal and easing inflation pressures continued to support market sentiment. On Thursday, the S&P 500 rose 0.41% and the Dow climbed 0.65%, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.18%, dragged down by weakness in the technology sector. Eight of the 11 S&P 500 sectors ended higher, led by gains in utilities, consumer staples, and real estate, while the tech sector faced a bout of profit-taking. Economic data showed wholesale prices unexpectedly fell 0.5% in April, defying forecasts for a 0.2% increase.   Approaching key resistance level. VNINDEX closed at 1,313.2 (+3.47 points, +0.26%) with liquidity around 20 sessions higher than the average. The market had 167 stocks increasing and 152 stocks decreasing, the banking group was the main contributor to the score. The stocks contributing the most to the markets increase were VPL, LPB, ACB while VHM FPT and BCM contributed to the markets decrease. Foreign investors net bought nearly 919 billion, the value mainly concentrated in MBB, SHB and FPT stocks.   Trading Strategy: The VN-Index is approaching the resistance zone of 1,300–1,320 points. Investors should maintain a moderate stock exposure to manage risk. The optimal entry points for medium- to long-term holding at low prices have passed, so investors entering the market now should prioritize short-term trading. Capital flow shows signs of rotating across different stock groups, favoring those that have not yet attracted significant capital and have a solid price base.  

▶ In Thursdays trading session, the market continuously experienced tug of war as profit-taking pressure increased, cooling down the markets continuous increase. However, cash flow still prioritized focusing on the group of banking stocks, helping the market reverse and maintain green at the end of the session. Market liquidity continued to improve, recording a level higher than the 20-day average. ▶ At the end of the trading session, the VN-Index increased by 3.47 points (+0.26%), reaching 1,313.20 points; HNX-Index increased by 0.40 points (+0.18%), reaching 219.28 points. Market liquidity reached VND25.9 trillion, equivalent to about 1,116.3 million shares traded. Foreign investors net bought VND919.0 billion, mainly focusing on MBB, SHB, BID. ▶ Technical perspective: The market recorded a continuous increase but there was a fluctuating state during the session. Increased liquidity shows a good increase in demand, however, the state is differentiated in the context of VN-Index moving towards the upper resistance zone. This shows that the increase is not convincing enough to form a new trend. We forecast there will be short-term profit-taking around this zone. Strategy: Investors who prefer to hold for the long term can consider disbursing stocks with good foundations, with low accumulation rates. It is possible to focus on stocks that benefit from domestic internal factors in some industry groups such as: Steel, banking, securities, energy... VN-Index moves towards the resistance zone of 1,300-1,320 points, investors should maintain stocks at a moderate level to manage risks.

Gemadept Corporation (GMD) is a pioneer in port and logistics service sector in Viet Nam. In Q1/2025, the core business segment is estimated to have grown by 55% YoY, with estimated output increasing by 30% YoY thanks to strong growth in goods production. In 2025, despite concerns about potential reciprocal tariffs from the US, we expect GMD to continue to maintain its growth momentum thanks to demand for stockpiling goods ahead of new tariff policy and an increase in service fee. Based on SOTP methods, we update GMD’s target price at VND 73,600. 

Given the relatively unpredictable impacts of tariff policies, we cautiously forecast credit growth of approximately 16.5% for 2025. NIM is expected to slightly decrease and remain around the 4.0% level. The consolidated NPL ratio is projected to be at 1.2%. Total operating income is forecast to reach VND 54,639 billion (+16% year-on-year). Pre-tax profit is expected to reach VND 31,548 billion (+15% year-on-year). This downward adjustment primarily stems from the narrowing NIM. Using the residual income (RI) method and the P/B ratio method, we update our target price for TCB at VND31,000. In the short term, the TCBS IPO is highly anticipated by many investors. Additionally, TCB is also in the process of selling a 15% stake to a strategic investor. These positive signals related to successful capital raising are expected to have a positive impact on TCBs valuation.