Recommendations

Highlights: According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.7% in February, exceeding analysts forecast of 0.3% and surpassing the previous months increase of 0.5%. On March 19th (Vietnam time), after a two-day meeting, the Fed decided to keep the reference interest rate at 3.5%-3.5%, the same as the January meeting. The State Bank of Vietnam proposed allowing major and critical projects in the capital to borrow beyond the limits, with a maximum of 38% of the owners equity for an individual borrower and 52% for related groups. Assessment: The market remains at risk due to geopolitical tensions, causing the downward trend to continue. High oil prices have raised concerns about potential stagflation in the future. Meanwhile, Trump seems to be looking for ways to reverse course and declare a victory, though further monitoring is needed. We believe there are still positive news to support the market, such as the upcoming annual shareholders meeting and market upgrade, but sector performance will be differentiated.   Technical View: The VN-Index closed the week at 1,647.8 (-48.13 points; -2.86%) with reduced liquidity. The market continues to decline towards the lower bound of the trading range of 1,600 – 1,800, which is a strong support zone. We expect a technical recovery in this range. However, the long-term market trend remains sideways with stock differentiation.   Investment Ideas: Investors should limit full deployment of purchasing power until there is more clarity on geopolitical developments in Iran. During this period, priority may be given to domestic-driven sectors such as public investment, banking, and construction materials. Additionally, the declines caused by cross-margin call pressures may create opportunities to buy at attractive price levels. Investors can also consider commodity stocks as commodity prices enter an uptrend (e.g., fertilizers). However, these stocks tend to be volatile, so strict risk management is needed if the market environment changes.

  Hoa Sen Group Joint Stock Company (HSG) is a leading enterprise in the coated steel sector in Vietnam. In Q1/FY2026, HSG’s business performance weakened significantly, achieving only 22% and 12% of its annual revenue and profit targets, respectively. The main driver for 2026 is domestic consumption, supported by Hoa Sen Home, while export volume may decline due to global tariff risks. In Q1/FY2026, HSG reported net revenue of VND 8,383 billion (flat QoQ, -18% YoY) and NPAT of VND 62 billion (-26% QoQ, -62% YoY). Steel sales volume in Q1/FY2026 reached 399,394 tons (-4% QoQ, -20% YoY) due to a 52% YoY decline in exports, while domestic sales increased slightly by 5% YoY but were insufficient to offset the export drop. Gross profit margin (GPM) stood at 11.2% (-1 percentage point QoQ, -0.6 percentage points YoY) mainly due to (1) higher HRC input costs after AD20 and rising coke prices, and (2) increasing domestic competition, which made it difficult for coated steel companies to raise selling prices amidst weak exports. However, we observe that HSGs GPM contraction is less severe than its peers, thanks to the advantage of its widespread Hoa Sen Homes distribution network. We forecast the company’s revenue and NPAT to reach VND 35,688 billion (-2% YoY) and VND 708 billion (-3% YoY) for the fiscal year 2026. Using the DCF valuation method, we update the target price for HSGs stock to VND 15,300.  

In 2025, the value investment portfolio continued to record positive returns of +29.4% YTD, compared to the VN-Indexs +43.1% YTD increase. This marks the third consecutive year the portfolio has achieved an annual return exceeding 20% (FY2023: +25.7% vs. VN-Index +14.1%; FY2024: +21.0% vs. VN-Index +14.3%). Key contributors to the 2025 return include: VHM (+210% YTD) and VRE (+96.2% YTD), particularly as VinGroup-related stocks accounted for 51% of the VN-Indexs total gains during the year. Furthermore, banking stocks showed robust price appreciation, such as MBB (+54.4% YoY) and TCB (+45.3% YoY). Conversely, FPT was the weakest performer in the past year (-26.4% YTD), aligning with global trends where major tech firms reported sub-optimal results, partly pressured by foreign net selling. Amid complex geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, which triggered a market correction starting in late February, many stocks experienced significant price drops. This presents an opportune moment to filter for value stocks trading at deep discounts relative to their intrinsic value. The stocks selected for the Value Portfolio all possess solid financial foundations, positive business results, long-term growth prospects, and attractive upside potential. In this update, we remove GAS, POW, and GMD as their stock prices have reached target expectations. Concurrently, we add ACB and NLG based on: (1) leading industry positions; (2) robust financial strength; and (3) stock prices reaching attractive discount zones, opening investment opportunities with high expectations.  

Oil prices fell after efforts by the US and Israel to ease market concerns about the conflict with Iran. US stock futures steadied on Friday as oil prices eased, following efforts by the US and Israel to calm market fears over the Iran conflict. US President Donald Trump said the US is not considering sending ground troops to the Middle East, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested Iran’s regime could face internal collapse. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu added that Israel would hold off on further strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure and that the war could end sooner than expected, noting Iran’s reduced capacity to enrich uranium or produce ballistic missiles. In Thursday’s regular session, the Dow dropped 0.44%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.27%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.28%.    Short-term correction. VN-Index ended the trading day at 1,699.13 (-14.70 points, -0.86%), lower liqudidity than the average 20 latest sessions. There were 95 stocks ended in green, 229 ended in red. Stocks that had exerted the most significant downward pressure on the index were STB, TCX and VPX; whereas GAS, BID and CTG contributed positively to the index. Foreign net sold VND 982 bn, notably FPT and VIC, while foreign bought strongly MSN. All sectors declined.   Trading Strategy: Investors should avoid fully deploying their buying power until there is greater clarity regarding geopolitical developments in Iran. In the meantime, investors may focus on domestically driven sectors such as public investment, banking, and construction materials. Market corrections caused by indirect cross-margin calls could also create opportunities to accumulate stocks at more attractive valuations. Additionally, investors may consider commodity-related stocks as commodity prices appear to be entering an upward trend (e.g., fertilizers). However, these stocks tend to be highly volatile, so proper risk management is necessary if market conditions change Buy Recommendation: HDG  

▶ The index opened the trading session with a gap down of 13.64 points, continuing the strong selling pressure from the end of the previous session. Strong selling pressure persisted throughout the session, with the index repeatedly losing the 1,700 support level. Negative sentiment returned as tensions in the Middle East showed no signs of easing, and attacks on Israeli and Iranian energy facilities led to oil prices exceeding USD110/barrel. The index continued to experience strong net selling pressure throughout the session and closed below the crucial 1,700 support level. ▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index fell 14.70 points (-0.86%) to 1,699.13 points; the HNX-Index fell 2.05 points (-0.83%) to 245.73 points. Market liquidity increased sharply compared to the previous session, but remained below the 20-day average at VND 26.5 trillion, corresponding to 998 million shares traded. Foreign investors net sold VND 982 billion today, with the largest net selling values in FPT, VIC, and BSR. Conversely, MSN, VHM, and ACB were the stocks with net buying. ▶ Technical Perspective: Pressure from the sharp rise in oil prices, coupled with the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged amidst rising PPI and a weakening labor market, caused Asian stock markets to correct across the board during the session. In this context, the VN-Index opened in the red, at one point falling nearly 28 points before recovering to near its previous closing level. Subsequently, the market fluctuated with low liquidity, oscillating just above the MA200 line. Although valuations have become more attractive, the lack of strong buying pressure indicates a cautious (risk-off) sentiment across the market. Technically, the RSI has fallen to 38, approaching oversold territory, while the index remains above the important support level of the MA200. From a statistical perspective, we monitor the percentage of stocks trading above the 50-day moving average (EMA50) as an indicator to identify market bottoms. Historically, the VN-Index typically confirms its bottom when this ratio fluctuates between 30% and 40%, and peaks around 60-70%. With the current figure at around 36%, the data suggests that many stocks have fallen significantly recently. In the base scenario: The VN-Index is expected to fluctuate in the 1,650–1,750 point range in the short term as investors await clearer signals of easing geopolitical tensions. If tensions ease, pressure on global oil prices could ease, opening the possibility of the Fed resuming interest rate cuts sooner. This could improve risk sentiment in the market and support the stock market. In the negative scenario: Prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could further tighten global oil supply, keeping oil prices high for an extended period. This scenario increases the risk of stagflation (high inflation coupled with low economic growth). Historically, such environments are often unfavorable for the stock market and could lead to a deeper correction in the VN-Index. Strategy: Investors should limit full disbursement until there is more clarity on geopolitical developments in Iran. During this period, priority should be given to sectors benefiting from domestic factors such as public investment, banking, and construction materials; at the same time, dips due to cross-margin call pressure may create opportunities to buy at attractive prices. Additionally, investors can consider commodity stocks given that commodity prices are entering an upward trend (e.g., fertilizers). However, this sector is often highly volatile, so tight risk management is necessary if market conditions change.