Recommendations

Net interest income (NII) reached VND31,807bn (+32.2% YoY), while NIM declined slightly from 4.1% at end-4Q25 to 4.0% at end-2Q26. Higher interest rates and lower CASA drove a rapid increase in the bank’s cost of funds during 1H26. Non-interest income declined 28.8% YoY in 1H26, mainly due to weaker performance in FX, trading, and interest income from risk-asset recovery. Meanwhile, fee income continued to grow strongly (+11.5% YoY), supported by growth in card services The NPL ratio increased slightly to 1.45% at end-2Q26, from 1.3% at end-4Q25. The NPL coverage ratio stood at 93.6% at end-2Q26, broadly unchanged from end-4Q25.1H26 PBT reached VND20,188bn (+27.1% YoY), achieving more than 51% of the full-year target. Outlook We maintain our key assumptions from our previous report, including 30% credit growth, 3.9% NIM, an NPL ratio of around 1.2%, an NPL coverage ratio above 100%, and a 1.5% credit cost. Accordingly, we forecast 2026 PBT at VND39,995bn (+16.7% YoY). To date, MBB’s earnings performance has been better than our expectations for NII and credit provisioning expenses, but weaker than expected in non-interest income.

Business result 6M2026Techcombank (TCB) posted record quarterly PBT of VND9,670bn (+22% YoY) in 2Q26, bringing 6M26 PBT to VND18,540bn (+22.5% YoY), equivalent to 49% of the full-year profit target approved by the AGM. In 1H26, net interest income (NII) grew 16.3% YoY, driven by strong credit growth. Total credit increased 15% YTD, with gross loans reaching VND950tn, significantly faster than the 11% growth recorded over the same period last year. National infrastructure projects, construction, real estate lending, and the corporate bond portfolio were the key drivers of TCB’s solid credit growth in 1H26.OutlookCompared with our previous report, we maintain our key 2026 assumptions, including 16% loan growth, 3.7% NIM, 1.1% NPL ratio, and 0.7% full-year credit costs. Accordingly, we forecast 2026 PBT at VND38,021bn (+17% YoY

▶ The VN-Index rebounded, driven by Vingroup-related stocks. This duo alone contributed nearly 14 points to the indexs total gain of 19 points and exerted the most positive influence on the market today. Other stock sectors showed little fluctuation around the reference level. Despite the gains, market liquidity did not rise commensurately; the matched trading value fell to the VND 15 trillion mark. Foreign capital flows showed positive signs, reversing to a net buy of VND 314 billion—a factor anticipated ahead of the official market upgrade scheduled for September this year. ▶ At the close of the session, the VN-Index rose 19.77 points (+1.11%) to finish at 1,793.18 points, while the HNX-Index fell 2.46 points (-0.85%) to 288.45 points. Total liquidity across the three exchanges reached VND 15 trillion, with approximately 637 million shares traded. Foreign investors reversed to a net buy position of VND 314 billion, led by VIC (+VND 188 billion), VIX (+VND 152 billion), and SSI (+VND 141 billion). Conversely, notable net-sold stocks included VHM (-VND 68 billion), ACB (-VND 60 billion), and TCB (-VND 52 billion). ▶ Technical perspective: The VN-Index has rebounded, driven largely by gains in VIC-related stocks, while the broader market remains relatively balanced. Recent trading activity indicates improved buying interest, which is successfully absorbing selling pressure at key resistance levels. The market is currently awaiting the State Bank of Vietnams meeting with commercial banks on August 12, anticipating clearer guidance on potential interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter of 2026. This could serve as a key short-term catalyst for the markets recovery. Furthermore, as the market approaches its official upgrade and the initial inflow of foreign capital—albeit with expectedly modest passive capital volumes—improved sentiment should help mitigate downside risk. From a technical standpoint, the VN-Index is currently testing the 200-day moving average (MA200), showing signs of strengthening demand. However, buying pressure is not yet robust enough to trigger a decisive breakout from the current 1,780–1,800 point consolidation range. A strong rally backed by sufficient volume to decisively clear the 1,800-point mark would reinforce our view that the markets recovery trend remains intact. In the positive medium-term case: In an optimistic scenario, easing inflationary pressures would create room for more flexible monetary policy, thereby supporting market valuations. Companies maintaining solid profit growth and trading at reasonable valuations—despite persistently high domestic interest rates—may present attractive investment opportunities for the medium to long term. Under this scenario, the VN-Index is expected to target the 2,000–2,100 point range in the second half of 2026. However, any recovery sessions during the remainder of July must demonstrate strong bottom-fishing demand. In the base medium-term case: Conversely, if net selling pressure from foreign investors persists and domestic interest rates continue to rise—thereby dampening market liquidity—the VN-Index may lack fresh, positive capital inflows. It would likely trade sideways within the 1,750–1,850 point range during the second half of 2026. Weakness in the VIC and VHM stock groups could cause the VN-Index to retest the lower bound of the previous sideways range—around the 1,580–1,600 point level. Additionally, renewed geopolitical tensions between Iran and the US, combined with the likelihood of the Fed maintaining high interest rates, could reinforce this negative scenario by pressuring exchange rates and foreign capital flows into emerging markets like Vietnam. Strategy: Investors can capitalize on market corrections to deploy capital incrementally while maintaining a reasonable cash position for risk management, remaining ready to increase exposure once a market recovery trend is confirmed. Investors should avoid using leverage (margin) to catch the bottom, as the market may form a secondary low. Furthermore, technical rebounds offer opportunities to restructure portfolios by divesting from companies that are underperforming relative to expectations.  

Awaiting inflation data, with markets still divided over the likelihood of a rate hike. US stock futures were little changed on Wednesday as investors awaited a key inflation reading that could shape the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision. The consumer price index report is due later today, followed by producer inflation data on Thursday. Markets remain divided over whether the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points in September after keeping them unchanged in July, with rising oil prices reinforcing expectations for a more hawkish stance. In corporate news, CoreWeave surged more than 14% in extended trading after the artificial intelligence spending boom lifted the company’s sales outlook. Super Micro Computer also jumped more than 7% after the data center infrastructure provider issued upbeat guidance for first-quarter earnings and revenue. Investors now turn their attention to more earnings reports on Wednesday from Cisco Systems, Cerebras and Enersys, among others.   Range-Bound Trading with Resistance at 1,800. The VN-Index closed the trading session at 1,773.41 points (down 3.36 points, or 0.19%), with trading volume falling below the 20-session average. During the session, 162 stocks advanced while 155 declined. Stocks exerting a positive influence on the index included LPB, VHM, and GEE, whereas GAS, VCB, and CTG weighed on the index. Foreign investors were net sellers totaling nearly VND 769 billion, focusing their sales on TCB, VHM, and FPT, while net buying VNM, FRT, and LPB.   Trading Strategy: Investors may take advantage of market pullbacks to gradually accumulate positions while maintaining a prudent cash allocation to manage risk and preserve flexibility to increase exposure once a market recovery is confirmed. Investors should avoid using margin to bottom-fish, as the market may still be in the process of forming a second bottom. In addition, technical rebound sessions provide an opportunity to rebalance portfolios by reducing exposure to companies whose business performance has fallen short of expectations.   Current portfolio: LPB, PAN, MBB, POW; Watchlist: HPG, REE, NVL High-risk stocks to avoid: Real estate (PDR, KDH, NLG), HDG and PNJ

▶ The VN-Index continued to fluctuate within a narrow range around the MA200 resistance level during Tuesdays trading session. The index opened slightly higher, then oscillated between 1,766 and 1,789 before closing with a 3-point loss. Liquidity remained flat, hovering near the 20-session average. Overall, the market is consolidating to absorb selling pressure before potentially breaking out to higher levels. Foreign investors increased their net selling, with the total net sell value rising to VND 769 billion. ▶ At the close, the VN-Index fell 3.36 points (-0.19%) to 1,773.41 points, while the HNX-Index rose 3.23 points (+1.12%) to reach 290.91 points. Total liquidity across the three exchanges reached VND 17.1 trillion, with approximately 711 million shares traded. Foreign investors expanded their net selling to VND 769 billion; notable net sales included TCB (-VND 221 billion), VHM (-VND 185 billion), and FPT (-VND 105 billion). Conversely, notable net buys included VNM (+VND 60 billion), FRT (+VND 60 billion), and LPB (+VND 55 billion). ▶ Technical perspective: A lack of follow-through in buying demand caused the VN-Index to continue fluctuating with low liquidity around the critical MA200 level. Financial stocks continued to attract capital flows during the session, while buying and selling pressures remained generally balanced, reflecting a cautious sentiment and indecision among market participants. High interest rates remain the primary factor weighing on market liquidity. From a technical perspective, the VN-Index is currently testing the MA200, with signs of improving buying interest. However, capital inflows are not yet strong enough to drive the index to break out of the current 1,780–1,800 point consolidation range. A rally driven by strong demand that allows the VN-Index to decisively surpass the 1,800-point mark would reinforce our view that the markets recovery trend is likely to continue. In the positive medium-term case: In an optimistic scenario, easing inflationary pressures would create room for more flexible monetary policy, thereby supporting market valuations. Companies maintaining solid profit growth and trading at reasonable valuations—despite persistently high domestic interest rates—may present attractive investment opportunities for the medium to long term. Under this scenario, the VN-Index is expected to target the 2,000–2,100 point range in the second half of 2026. However, any recovery sessions during the remainder of July must demonstrate strong bottom-fishing demand. In the base medium-term case: Conversely, if net selling pressure from foreign investors persists and domestic interest rates continue to rise—thereby dampening market liquidity—the VN-Index may lack fresh, positive capital inflows. It would likely trade sideways within the 1,750–1,850 point range during the second half of 2026. Weakness in the VIC and VHM stock groups could cause the VN-Index to retest the lower bound of the previous sideways range—around the 1,580–1,600 point level. Additionally, renewed geopolitical tensions between Iran and the US, combined with the likelihood of the Fed maintaining high interest rates, could reinforce this negative scenario by pressuring exchange rates and foreign capital flows into emerging markets like Vietnam. Strategy: Investors can capitalize on market corrections to deploy capital incrementally while maintaining a reasonable cash position for risk management, remaining ready to increase exposure once a market recovery trend is confirmed. Investors should avoid using leverage (margin) to catch the bottom, as the market may form a secondary low. Furthermore, technical rebounds offer opportunities to restructure portfolios by divesting from companies that are underperforming relative to expectations.