Recommendations

Highlights: On February 18, Mr. Trump expressed feeling more confident after the US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia, which included discussions aimed at ending the war in Ukraine. In an ambitious move, the Vietnamese Government has presented to the National Assembly a proposal to raise the GDP growth target for 2025 to at least 8%, much higher than the previous target of 6.5-7%. Shared by the Governor of the SBV, Nguyen Thi Hong, at the Government Conference with localities on economic growth: For 2025, the State Bank of Vietnam aims for a credit growth target of about 16%.   Technical view: The VN-Index closed the week at 1,296.75 (+20.67 points; +1.62%) with liquidity continuing to increase. The index formed a strong bullish candlestick and closed near the highest point of the week. This is the fifth consecutive week of gains for the index. Foreign investors have reduced their net selling compared to the previous week. Thus, the index is approaching the resistance level of 1,300. To break the peak, liquidity needs to remain high, and large-cap stocks must increase more strongly.   Investment ideas: Investors should observe the markets reaction at the 1,300 level. It may be considered to hold and take partial profits in the market-oriented stock group. Sectors to watch include the securities group (with improving market liquidity), public investment, and the banking sector.  

Production increased slightly due to Lunar New Year but uncertainties prevailed Because the Lunar New Year lasted nearly 10 days at the end of January, production activities were influenced. The Index for industrial production (IIP) in January 2025 increased slightly by 0.6% YoY (-9.2% MoM). Unlike previous months, when the manufacturing sector played a leading in the total growth with the high growth number, the sector only increased by 1.6% YoY. The water supply industry; waste management and treatment activities grew the highest compared to other industries, reaching 9.2% YoY. The PMI continued falling to 48.9 points in January 2025 from 49.8 in December 2024. In the context of declining both output and new orders, manufacturing companies responded by cutting human resources and reducing inventories. However, companies still maintained an optimistic outlook on output for the year. More than 36% predicted that the output would increase in the next 12 months according to the S&P Global survey.

Established in 1993, VPBank is a bank that pursues a modern retail strategy. VPB has grown strongly thanks to its ability to expand its network of branches and transaction points nationwide, along with the development of diverse products. With its leading position in consumer finance, FE Credit is expected to recover more clearly in 2025-2028. Two other subsidiaries, VPBankS (Securities) and OPES (Insurance), are also gradually contributing more to the banks operations. Based on the residual income method and the P/B comparison method, we estimate the 12-month target price of VPB at VND 24,100/share. Outlook for 2025 Key assumptions for 2025 include consolidated credit growth of approximately 22%, consolidated NIM recovering to above 6% thanks to contributions from FE Credit, consolidated NPLs controlled around 4.0%, credit risk cost/total credit of approximately 4.2%, consolidated CIR of 22-23%. Consolidated pre-tax profit of VPB in 2025 is forecast to reach VND 24,360 billion (+21.8% YoY), a slight increase compared to the latest report due to positive signals of asset quality and recovery of the retail customer segment.  

Global stocks simultaneously declined. On Thursday, the Dow dropped 1.01%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite lost 0.43% and 0.47%, respectively. Looking ahead, investors are focusing on the latest PMI readings and existing home sales data on Friday for more insight into the state of the economy   Approaching the 1300-point mark. VNINDEX closed at 1,292.98 (+4.42 points, +0.34%) with higher liquidity compared to the 20-session average. In the short-term trend, the market continues to rise towards the 1,300 zone with liquidity maintained above the average level. Although the market has surpassed the 1,280 resistance, the 1,300 zone that is being approached is a strong resistance zone that has been tested unsuccessfully many times. In a positive scenario, buying power needs to continue to increase to support the VN-Index in this test.   Trading Strategy: The market is currently in a short-term uptrend and approaching the resistance zone around 1,300. For short-term trading, investors can consider disbursing around this area and gradually taking profits when approaching 1,280 - 1,300 points. With a holding investment strategy, investors will only disburse strongly when the VN-Index breaks out and successfully defends the 1,300 point level. Buy Recommendation: MBB  

▶ The market went on gaining points in todays trading session and is gradually heading towards the 1,300 resistance level. Liquidity maintained at a favourable level, despite the diversification in industries’ performances and the lack of the leading group. After net-buying yesterday, foreign investors returned to net selling, mainly concentrated in large-cap stocks. ▶ At the end of the trading session, the VN-Index increased by 4.42 points (+0.34%), reaching 1,292.98 points; the HNX-Index increased by 0.23 points (+0.1%), reaching 238.02 points. Market liquidity reached VND 18.76 trillion, which was equivalent to about 936.3 million shares traded. Foreign investors net sold VND 395 billion, mainly concentrated in FPT, MWG and VCB. ▶ Technical perspective: In the short-term, the market continues to head towards the 1,300 level with liquidity maintaining above average value, which is a good signal. However, the closing of today candlestick shows that the indexs momentum has slowed down when approaching this harsh resistance level. The EMA20 indicator maintains an upward trend, which is indicative of the market’s improvement. In a positive scenario, an increase in demand should be observed in order to support the VN-Index in this test. In the positive scenario, VN-Index will establish a green candle with a wide body in the following sessions, accompanied with improving liquidity, helping to confirm the control of the buyers and creating momentum for VN-Index to surpass the 1,300 old peak. In a more negative scenario, VN-Index will continue to show correction with a wide-body candlestick. Then the next support will be the 1,230 - 1,250 point area. This is seen as strong support area on both daily and weekly charts. Strategy: The market is following the sideway-moving trend towards the upper band. If trading in the short term, investors can consider disbursing around the 1,230 - 1,250 point area and gradually take profits when the index approaches 1,300 points. For a buy-and-hold strategy, investors can increase their stocks’ weight when VN-Index successfully breaks out and defends the 1,300 point area.