Recommendations

Key highlights: _ Today (11 December), the National Assembly passed a resolution amending and supplementing Resolution 98 on piloting special mechanisms and policies — a long-awaited legal framework that provides Ho Chi Minh City with stronger conditions to accelerate growth and achieve breakthroughs. _ Income from the transfer of digital assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum will be subject to a 0.1% tax, similar to securities transactions. _ Transactions involving gold bullion will also be subject to a 0.1% tax on the value of each transaction. _ The Fed cut interest rates for the third time this year, lowering rates by 25 basis points (0.25%).   Assessment: Over the past week, the market has returned to its familiar trading range of 1,600-1,700, reflecting cautious sentiment amid the pre-Tet period, the upcoming 16th National Assembly election, and the absence of leadership from large capitalization stocks. We believe market activity will become more vibrant after Tet as uncertainties gradually clear and the year-end earnings season unfolds. In addition, interest-rate movements and liquidity conditions in the interbank market will need close monitoring in the coming period. We expect the Fed’s rate cut to help ease these pressures to some extent.   Technical view: The VN-Index closed the week at 1,646.9 points (-94.4 points; -5.42%) on low liquidity. The market declined largely in line with weakness in the VIC group, with no meaningful capital rotation into other sectors. The sharp correction near the 1,800 level suggests the market will need more time before a clear uptrend can be re-established. The 1,600-1,700 range is expected to remain the VN-Index’s primary trading zone in the coming week.   Investment idea: Short-term investors should stay on the sidelines and monitor index behavior around the 1,600 level. A clear trend-reversal signal could open opportunities for new positions; however, exposure should be kept modest.

Rotation of capital out of U.S. technology stocks. US stock futures were mixed on Friday as investors evaluated a new round of corporate earnings. Dow futures rose 0.1%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures declined 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. In extended trading, Broadcom fell nearly 5% despite delivering better-than-expected quarterly results and issuing strong guidance. Meanwhile, Lululemon jumped more than 10% after announcing that its CEO will step down at the end of January following a year of weak performance for the athletic apparel company. During Thursday’s regular session, the Dow and S&P 500 advanced 1.34% and 0.21%, respectively, with both indexes closing at fresh record highs, while the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.25%. The session reflected a rotation out of expensive tech and AI-oriented names and into cyclicals and undervalued sectors after the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut.   Pullback at the 1,800 resistance zone. The VNINDEX closed at 1,698.90 (-20.08 points, -1.17%) with liquidity continuing to decline and lower than the average of the last 20 sessions. The market saw 104 gainers and 192 losers. The stocks contributing most to the indexs rise were SAB, LPB, and BMP; the stocks hindering the market were VIC, VHM, and VPL. Foreign investors net sold nearly 500 billion VND, with VIC alone experiencing net selling of VND 190 billion.   Trading Strategy: The sharp decline in the VIC group dragged the index lower, but several sectors are showing signs of strong price support. Notably, banking, utilities, basic resources, and financial services; investors may continue monitoring these groups to prepare an appropriate deployment strategy.

▶ The index opened the trading session with a gap down of 8.70 points after the previous sharp correction. Foreign investors continued to net sell, putting selling pressure on the VN-Index, with the net selling value increasing compared to the previous session. The Vingroup group continued to put pressure on the VN-Index, although the pressure from this group of stocks was less intense than in previous sessions. ▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index decreased by 20.08 points (-1.17%), to 1,698.90 points; the HNX-Index decreased by 0.61 points (-0.24%), to 255.87 points. Market liquidity during the index correction session decreased sharply compared to previous sessions, remaining below the 20-day average at VND 17.5 trillion, corresponding to 670 million shares traded. Foreign investors net sold VND 489 billion, with the largest net selling value in VIC, STB, and VHM. Conversely, FPT, MBB, and VIX were the stocks with net buying. ▶ Technical perspective: The VN-Index continued its sharp decline, but the main reason was the correction in the Vingroup group. Liquidity continued to decline and remained below the 20-day average, indicating that the correction did not involve strong selling pressure, mainly a correction in index points and Vingroup stocks after a rapid surge. In terms of trend, the VN-Index remains positive as it holds firm above the MA10 and MA20 lines, important support levels for the current uptrend. In the following sessions, the market will continue to test capital flows, trading around the 1,650-1,700 point range, requiring widespread support and improved liquidity. In a positive scenario: The market has recovered positively and surpassed 1,700 (temporarily breaking out of the 1,600-1,700 point sideways range) with improved liquidity, better market breadth, and the return of foreign investors. We believe the market will encounter some resistance when returning to its previous peak and will fluctuate around 1,800 before cash flow improves after the Party Congress concludes in early 2026. In a negative scenario: The downward trend continues to intensify with increasing trading volume, and no bottom-buying pressure appears around the 1,550-1,580 point level. The market could then continue towards the 1,500 support zone and lower price levels for testing. Strategy: Investors need to select suitable stocks in the context of the VNINDEX index being strongly influenced by the performance of the VIC group. Medium- and long-term investors can begin to gradually disburse funds into stock groups with good business results and sufficiently attractive discounts, such as banking, finance, and construction materials. Shorter-term investors can look at improved cash flow and prices to select stocks in sectors such as electricity, industrial parks, and technology…  

Binh Minh Plastics JSC (HSX: BMP) is a construction plastics manufacturer holding the second-largest market share nationwide and the leading position in the Southern region. Using the P/E and DCF valuation methods with respective weightings of 50% and 50%, we update our valuation for BMP at VND 189,100 per share, implying an expected return of 20%. We expect BMP to set a new record profit in 2026, supported by the continued decline in global PVC prices.

The Fed cut rates as expected and signaled one rate cut in 2026. US stock futures were mixed on Thursday as investors digested the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut, which drove an afternoon rebound on Wall Street. Dow futures rose 0.1%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.1% and 0.2%, pressured by a sharp selloff in Oracle. The AI-focused cloud provider plunged more than 10% in extended trading after missing revenue estimates and raising its spending forecast, reviving concerns about the durability of AI-related investment cycles. The report triggered fresh concerns about the sustainability of AI investments. In regular trading on Wednesday, the Dow rallied 1.05%, the S&P 500 gained 0.67% and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.33%. Those moves came as the Fed delivered its third quarter-point rate cut this year, while signaling a more gradual path of easing next year. Chair Jerome Powell also indicated that further hikes are unlikely and reiterated confidence in the resilience of the US economy.   Pullback at the 1,800 resistance zone. VNINDEX closed at 1,718.98, marking a decrease of 28.19 points or 1.61%. Trading volume was lower than the 20-day average. The market saw 121 advancing codes and 188 declining codes.The stock group contributing the most to the indexs gain included MBB, HDB, and CTG, while the stocks hindering the market were VIC, VHM, and VPL. Foreign investors were net sellers with a value of 367 billion VND. Specifically, VIC alone was net sold for over 307 billion VND.   Trading Strategy: The sharp decline in the VIC group dragged the index lower, but several sectors are showing signs of strong price support. Notably, banking, utilities, basic resources, and financial services; investors may continue monitoring these groups to prepare an appropriate deployment strategy.