Recommendations

▶ The index opened the trading session with an 8.01 points gain, continuing the recovery from the previous session. The recovery remained stable throughout the morning session; however, selling pressure from foreign investors pushed the index below the reference level. Bank stocks reversed course and returned to the reference level after news that Sacombank extended its restructuring plan until the end of 2030, slower than initially expected. ▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index rose 3.54 points (+0.21%), reaching 1,713.83 points; the HNX-Index rose 0.92 points (+0.37%), reaching 247.78 points. Market liquidity continued to decline sharply during the recovery session, falling below the 20-day average, at 29.1 trillion VND, corresponding to 1,009 million shares traded. Foreign investors net sold VND 2,604 billion today, with the largest net selling value in VIC, STB, and VCB. Conversely, MSN, PLX, and GMD were the stocks with net buying. ▶ Technical perspective: The VN-Index started the session positively, rising nearly 30 points, with capital flowing into the financial sector while the energy sector continued to face selling pressure. However, the upward momentum lacked cash flow and quickly encountered selling pressure, causing the index to narrow its gains and retreat near its previous closing level. Price movements reflect investor caution amidst lingering uncertainties. At the close, the VN-Index remained above the MA200 line, with the RSI at a neutral level of 51. Meanwhile, foreign investors recorded strong net selling, mainly concentrated in VIC. From a statistical perspective, we monitor the percentage of stocks trading above the 50-day moving average (EMA50) as an indicator to identify market bottoms. Historically, the VN-Index usually confirms a bottom when this percentage fluctuates between 30% and 40% and peaks around 60-70%. With the current figure at around 36%, the data suggests that many stocks have declined significantly recently. In the base scenario: The VN-Index is expected to fluctuate in the 1,650–1,750 point range in the short term as investors await clearer signals of easing geopolitical tensions. If tensions ease, pressure on global oil prices may ease, thereby opening up the possibility of the Fed resuming its interest rate cutting cycle sooner. This could help improve risk sentiment in the market and support the stock market. In the downside scenario: Prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could further tighten global oil supply, keeping oil prices high for an extended period. This scenario increases the risk of stagflation (high inflation coupled with low economic growth). Historically, such environments are often unfavorable for the stock market and could lead to a deeper correction in the VN-Index. Strategy: Investors should refrain from fully utilizing their buying power until there is greater clarity regarding geopolitical developments in Iran. During this period, priority should be given to sectors benefiting from domestic factors such as public investment, banking, and construction materials; at the same time, dips due to cross-margin call pressure may create opportunities to buy at attractive prices. Additionally, investors could consider commodity stocks given the current upward trend in commodity prices (e.g., fertilizers). However, this sector is often highly volatile, so careful risk management is necessary if market conditions change.  

Production maintained growth momentum thanks to domestic drivers Because February coincided with the Lunar New Year, production activities were less active than the same period last year. The Industrial Production Index (IIP) in February 2026 increased by only 1.0% YoY and decreased by -18.4% MoM. The PMI in February reached 54.3 points, up nearly 2 points from 52.5 in January. Increased production, driven by demand, led to increased labor recruitment and procurement activities. Strong domestic demand continued to drive up total orders despite weakening export orders.   Domestic consumption remained positive Total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue in February 2026 increased by 8.48% YoY, and the cumulative two-month increase was 7.93% YoY. Tourism continued to be a driving force.   Inflation surged due to Lunar New Year The headline CPI increased by 3.35% YoY in February 2026. For the first two months, the headline CPI increased by 2.94% YoY. Consumer demand and stockpiling of food for the Lunar New Year increased significantly. In the first two months of the year, the CPI for the transportation group decreased by 3.48% YoY. However, with the escalating tensions between the US and Israel and Iran, inflation in this group was likely to rise.    Interest Rates Trend Upward Interbank market interest rates experienced unusual fluctuations in early February and March. Given the unpredictable outcome of the US-Israel and Iran conflicts, interest rates may remain at a higher level than in 2025, at 5-6%, due to expectations of high inflation in the near future.

Awaiting the Fed’s policy decision. US stock futures were little changed on Wednesday as investors braced for the latest Federal Reserve policy decision. The central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, while traders look for guidance from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on how surging oil prices could influence the policy outlook. Oil prices continued to rise amid persistent Middle East hostilities, while US allies pushed back against President Donald Trump’s call to help secure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In regular trading on Tuesday, the Dow added 0.1%, the S&P 500 gained 0.25%, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.47%.    Waiting for bottom-fishing demand. VN-Index ended the trading day at 1,710.29 (+17.08 points,+1.01%), lower liqudidity than the average 20 latest sessions. There were 179 stocks ended in green, 147 ended in red. Stocks that had exerted the most significant downward pressure on the index were BSR, GAS and DGC; whereas VCB, MCH and VIC contributed positively to the index. Foreign net sold VND 681 bn, notably VIC (net sold over VND 1,008 bn), while foreign bought strongly VCK, MCH and MSN. Insurance stocks stand out.   Trading Strategy: Investors should avoid fully deploying their buying power until there is greater clarity regarding geopolitical developments in Iran. In the meantime, investors may focus on domestically driven sectors such as public investment, banking, and construction materials. Market corrections caused by indirect cross-margin calls could also create opportunities to accumulate stocks at more attractive valuations. Additionally, investors may consider commodity-related stocks as commodity prices appear to be entering an upward trend (e.g., fertilizers). However, these stocks tend to be highly volatile, so proper risk management is necessary if market conditions change   Buy Recommendation: HPG   

▶ The index opened the session with a gap of 16.17 points, continuing the recovery at the end of the previous session. The recovery momentum remained stable in the morning session before unfavorable information about DGC shares caused negative sentiment on the market. The index closed above the 1,700 mark during the session, sometimes exceeding the 1,730 mark, but closed back at the opening mark of 1,710. ▶ At the end of the trading session, VN-Index increased 17.08 points (+1.01%), reaching 1,710.29 points; HNX-Index increased 1.12 points (+0.46%), reaching 246.86 points. Market liquidity during the recovery session continued to decline sharply, below the 20-session average, at 27.6 trillion VND, equivalent to 1,007 million shares traded. Foreign investors net sold 681 billion VND in todays session, of which the largest net selling value was VIC, BID, and FPT. On the contrary, VCK, MCH and MSN are typical net buying stocks. ▶ Technical perspective: VN-Index opened positively, increasing more than 40 points, in sync with the recovery momentum of the global market thanks to falling oil prices in previous sessions. However, sentiment quickly turned cautious when geopolitical risks returned, with Iran increasing attacks on oil and gas infrastructure, causing oil prices to rebound. After that, VN-Index could not maintain the early sessions upward momentum, gradually weakened during the session and ended the session only increasing by 17 points. Oil and gas stocks continue to be under strong profit-taking pressure, while cash flow shows signs of shifting to financial, materials and essential consumer goods groups. The index remains above MA200, liquidity is low and RSI is around 40, showing that momentum is still weak in the short term. The recovery momentum lacks the support of liquidity, showing that caution is still the dominant sentiment. From a statistical perspective, we track the percentage of stocks trading above the 50-day moving average (EMA50) as an indicator to determine the market bottom. Historically, VN-Index often confirms the bottom when this ratio fluctuates between 30% and 40% and creates a peak around the 60-70% area. With the current figure hovering around 36%, the data shows that many stocks have dropped significantly in recent times. In the base case: VN-Index is expected to fluctuate in the area of 1,650–1,750 points in the short term as investors wait for clearer signals about the cooling of geopolitical tensions. If tensions ease, the pressure on global oil prices could cool, thereby opening up the possibility of the Fed resuming its interest rate cutting cycle sooner. This could help improve risk sentiment in the market and support the equity market. In the negative case, a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could continue to tighten global oil supply, causing oil prices to remain high for a long time. This scenario increases the risk of stagflation (high inflation accompanied by low economic growth). Historically, such an environment is often unfavorable for the stock market, and could cause the VN-Index to face a deeper correction. Strategy: Investors should limit disbursement of all purchasing power until there is more clarity on geopolitical developments in Iran. During this period, priority can be given to groups that benefit from domestic factors such as public investment, banking and construction materials; At the same time, declines due to cross margin call pressure can create buying opportunities at attractive prices. In addition, investors can also consider commodity stocks in the context of commodity prices entering an upward trend (for example, fertilizer). However, this group is often highly volatile, so strict risk management is needed if the market context changes.  

Rebounded as oil prices eased. US stock futures held steady on Tuesday after the major averages rebounded in the previous session as easing oil prices helped lift investor sentiment. In regular trading on Monday, the Dow rose 0.83%, the S&P 500 gained 1.01%, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.22%. All 11 S&P sectors finished higher, led by technology, consumer discretionary, and communication services. Nvidia advanced 1.7% after CEO Jensen Huang said during the company’s annual GTC conference that he expects $1 trillion in orders for Nvidia’s Blackwell and Vera Rubin systems through 2027.    Waiting for bottom-fishing demand. VN-Index ended the trading day at 1,693.21 (-3.03 points,-0.18%), lower liqudidity than the average 20 latest sessions. There were 149 stocks ended in green, 155 ended in red. Stocks that had exerted the most significant downward pressure on the index were BSR, GAS and VPL; whereas MCH, VHM and VCK contributed positively to the index. Foreign net sold VND 1,371 bn, notably BSR, VIC, PVD and VHM. Many oil & gas stocks continued to hit the floor limit   Trading Strategy: Investors should avoid fully deploying their buying power until there is greater clarity regarding geopolitical developments in Iran. In the meantime, investors may focus on domestically driven sectors such as public investment, banking, and construction materials. Market corrections caused by indirect cross-margin calls could also create opportunities to accumulate stocks at more attractive valuations. Additionally, investors may consider commodity-related stocks as commodity prices appear to be entering an upward trend (e.g., fertilizers). However, these stocks tend to be highly volatile, so proper risk management is necessary if market conditions change   Buy Recommendation: HPG