Recommendations

Update on BUY Recommendation - Target Price: VND 99,800/share Vinhomes JSC (HOSE: VHM) is Vietnam’s leading real estate developer, with significant competitive advantages including: (1) a large land bank in strategic locations, (2) proven strong project execution capabilities, and (3) a highly reputable and trusted brand. With solid growth prospects supported by strong sales capabilities and the rapid execution of large-scale projects in 2026, we recommend BUY with a target price of VND 99,800/share, based on the RNAV valuation method. 2026F-2027F Outlook: We expect tighter credit controls on the real estate sector to weigh on property developers to some extent during 2026-2027. However, VHM is likely to be less affected thanks to its bulk-sale strategy, which enables the company to accelerate cash collection. We forecast presales of VND 311 trillion in 2026F (+51% YoY) and VND 353 trillion in 2027F (+24% YoY), driven by major projects currently under development, including Green Paradise, Global Gate Ha Long, Saigon Park, Hai Van Bay, and Global Sportia

▶ Strong selling pressure at the start of the week led to a sharp market decline. Unlike previous sessions when VIC often supported the index, selling was heavily concentrated in VIC this time, with the stock alone accounting for more than 17 points of the VN-Indexs total 31-point drop. Market breadth was negative, with 235 decliners versus only 84 gainers. Selling pressure spread across most sectors, notably Real Estate, Energy, and Financial Services. On a positive note, liquidity did not surge and remained roughly in line with the previous session, indicating that panic selling has not yet emerged. Foreign investors remained net sellers, although the scale of net selling narrowed. ▶ At the close, the VN-Index fell 31.44 points (-1.7%) to 1,821.64 points, while the HNX-Index declined 1.93 points (-0.68%) to 280.60 points. Total trading value across the three exchanges reached VND 18.5 trillion, equivalent to approximately 718 million shares traded. Foreign investors recorded net sales of VND 465 billion, with notable net selling in VCB, CTG, VIC, and SHB. Meanwhile, key net-bought stocks included HDB, VRE, and VPB. ▶ Technical view: VN-Index experienced a volatile trading session with a wide range, at one point rising to 1,874 points before falling to an intraday low of 1,821 points. The index eventually closed down by more than 31 points, primarily due to the decline of the VIN-related stocks. As a result, the headline drop does not fully reflect the broader markets underlying performance. Trading liquidity remained relatively low, suggesting that the market is undergoing a normal correction rather than a panic-driven sell-off. In the coming sessions, the market is likely to remain under selling pressure but may gradually find an equilibrium as many stocks enter a consolidation phase and lose upward momentum. In the short term, the VN-Index is expected to continue trading sideways within the 1,800-1,850 point range. In the positive medium-term case: In an optimistic scenario, easing inflationary pressures would create room for more flexible monetary policy, thereby supporting market valuations. Companies maintaining solid profit growth and trading at reasonable valuations – despite persistently high domestic interest rates – may present attractive investment opportunities for the medium to long term. Under this scenario, the VN-Index is expected to target the 2,000–2,100 point range in the second half of 2026. However, any recovery sessions during the remainder of July must demonstrate strong “bottom-fishing” demand. In the base medium-term case: Conversely, if net selling pressure from foreign investors persists and domestic interest rates continue to rise – thereby dampening market liquidity – the VN-Index may lack fresh, positive capital inflows. It would likely trade sideways within the 1,750–1,850 point range during the second half of 2026. Weakness in the VIC and VHM stock groups could cause the VN-Index to retest the lower bound of the previous sideways range – around the 1,580–1,600 point level. Additionally, renewed geopolitical tensions between Iran and the US, combined with the likelihood of the Fed maintaining high interest rates, could reinforce this negative scenario by pressuring exchange rates and foreign capital flows into emerging markets like Vietnam. Strategy: Investors can capitalize on market corrections to deploy capital incrementally while maintaining a reasonable cash position for risk management, remaining ready to increase exposure once a market recovery trend is confirmed. Investors should avoid using leverage (margin) to catch the bottom, as the market may form a secondary low. Furthermore, technical rebounds offer opportunities to restructure portfolios by divesting from companies that are underperforming relative to expectations.  

Stronger-than-expected US labor data. US stocks closed mostly lower on Friday after stronger-than-expected labor market data gave the Fed more room to raise interest rates. The S&P 500 lost 0.4%, the Dow shed 272 points, while the Nasdaq added 0.2%. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 162K, above expectations for a gain of just over 50K jobs. Credit-sensitive sectors pulled back after the data as yields rebounded. Alphabet shed 1.1%, Microsoft lost 2%, Tesla tumbled 5.9%, and Palantir shed 4.5%, while JPMorgan retreated 0.9% and Visa fell 1%. Still, chipmakers rose after underperforming earlier in the week, helping to support the Nasdaq. Nvidia gained 0.8%, Micron rose 6.1%, Intel added 4.5%, and Marvell advanced 7% amid signs of optimism surrounding OpenAI’s new GPT model. Sandisk soared 11.9%, and AMD added 4.7%. On the week, the Dow dropped 0.3% while the S&P 500 added 0.1% and the Nasdaq rose 0.4%. The US stock market will be closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday.   Sideways trading within a wide range, with resistance at 1,900 points. VN-Index ended the trading session at 1,853.08 points, up 25.36 points (+1.39%), while trading volume remained below the 20-session average. There were 128 advancers and 176 decliners during the session. The stocks contributing positively to the index were VIC, VHM, and VPB, while SSB, OCB, and VPX weighed on the index. Foreign investors were net buyers of VND95 billion, with buying activity mainly concentrated in VIC and VHM.   Trading Strategy: Investors should remain patient and wait for market pullbacks or short-term volatility on relatively low trading liquidity to identify more attractive entry points. The preferred strategy is to focus on stocks that have yet to rally significantly relative to the broader market, but have solid business fundamentals, positive growth prospects, and reasonable valuations. This approach can help mitigate the risk of chasing stocks that have already experienced sharp rallies. Meanwhile, investors should avoid excessive optimism when the market moves up strongly and refrain from increasing their exposure too aggressively at elevated price levels. Maintaining an appropriate cash position will provide greater flexibility to deploy capital during market corrections while allowing investors to better manage downside risks.   Current portfolio: MBB, POW, NVL; Watchlist: HPG, REE, BVH, GAS and securities stock (HCM, SSI, VCI…) High-risk stocks to avoid: HDG

Key highlights: According to the Ministry of Finance, short-term liquidity in the banking system has improved. As of August 22, VND-denominated deposits increased 8.77% year-to-date, exceeding the 8.38% growth in credit outstanding. In Japan, the 10-year government bond yield reached 3%, the highest level since 1996. Germanys benchmark 10-year bond yield rose to its highest level since 2011, while the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 4.8%, the highest level since early November 2023. Fed Governor Christopher Waller recently said that he is leaning toward keeping interest rates unchanged at the September meeting, provided that upcoming inflation data do not show any major surprises.   Assessment: The market continued its upward trend, but the gains were primarily driven by Vingroup stocks. The rally may have been supported by news that VIC issued bonds to South Korean investors. However, market breadth on the VN-Index has not improved following the holiday break, partly due to concerns that global bond yields remain at very high levels and uncertainty surrounding the possibility of further interest rate hikes by the Fed. Nevertheless, we believe the domestic market remains broadly stable, and expectations of foreign capital inflows following the market upgrade could provide a catalyst for further improvement in the coming period.   Technical View: The VN-Index ended the week at 1,853.08 points (+20.9 points, +1.14%), with weekly trading volume remaining low as the market was open for only 2 sessions following the National Day holiday on September 2. Most stocks held their ground and traded within a narrow range on low liquidity. In terms of the index, the market is trending toward the 1,900-point level, although the gains were primarily driven by the VIN group.   Investment Idea: Investors should remain patient and wait for market fluctuations to accumulate positions. The preferred strategy is to select stocks that have not risen significantly relative to the broader market but have solid business fundamentals, benefit from potential upgrade-related capital flows, and offer attractive valuations. In addition, investors should avoid chasing rallies and using excessive margin on stocks that have already experienced sharp gains.

US Treasury yields declined. US stock futures were little changed on Friday as investors awaited the closely watched August payrolls report for fresh clues about the health of the labor market and the outlook for monetary policy. In extended trading, DocuSign jumped 4% after reporting better-than-expected Q2 earnings and revenue while raising its full-year sales guidance. Meanwhile, Lululemon Athletica plunged more than 18% after posting weaker sales and profits for Q2 and issuing a disappointing forecast for the current quarter. In regular trading on Thursday, the Dow climbed 1.18%, the S&P 500 gained 1.06%, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.4%, with all three benchmarks advancing for a second consecutive session. The gains came as Treasury yields retreated after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated that a rate hike would not be warranted if underlying inflation continues to ease.   Sideways trading within a wide range, with resistance at 1,900 points. The VN-Index ended the trading session at 1,827.72 points, down 4.4 points (-0.24%), with trading volume above the 20-session average. A total of 93 stocks advanced, while 236 stocks declined. VIC, VHM, and SSB were the top positive contributors to the index, while TCB, VCB, and VPB weighed on the market. Foreign investors recorded net selling of VND 1,532 billion, mainly concentrated in VCB, VIC, and VPB.   Trading Strategy: Investors should remain patient and wait for market pullbacks or short-term volatility on relatively low trading liquidity to identify more attractive entry points. The preferred strategy is to focus on stocks that have yet to rally significantly relative to the broader market, but have solid business fundamentals, positive growth prospects, and reasonable valuations. This approach can help mitigate the risk of chasing stocks that have already experienced sharp rallies. Meanwhile, investors should avoid excessive optimism when the market moves up strongly and refrain from increasing their exposure too aggressively at elevated price levels. Maintaining an appropriate cash position will provide greater flexibility to deploy capital during market corrections while allowing investors to better manage downside risks.   Current portfolio: MBB, POW, NVL; Watchlist: HPG, REE, BVH, GAS and securities stock (HCM, SSI, VCI…) High-risk stocks to avoid: HDG