Recommendations

Highlights: October PMI rises to 54.5: Vietnam’s manufacturing sector starts Q4 strongly.The  Ministry of Finance has issued Circular No. 102/2025/TT-BTC, amending Circular No. 91/2020/TT-BTC on financial safety ratios and remedial measures for securities firms failing to meet these requirements. The new circular takes effect on December 15, 2025. Interbank interest rates have risen again to 6% per year.   Technical View: The VN-Index closed the week at 1,599.1 points (-40.55 points; -2.47%), with low trading volume. After breaking below the 50-day moving average on the daily chart, the index faced strong selling pressure around the 1,700-point level. The drop below 1,600 indicates weak market liquidity—selling pressure is not heavy, but buying interest remains reluctant, keeping the index from recovering. Meanwhile, foreign investors continued to be net sellers.     Investment Idea: Short-term investors should prioritize observing the market and consider focusing on stocks that have managed to hold their base prices despite the recent market pullback. If the market successfully retests the 1,600-point support level, investors may start accumulating positions for medium- to long-term holdings, focusing on stocks benefiting from potential market reclassification, companies with strong earnings growth, or those trading at valuations lower than the overall market average.  

Song Hong Garment Joint Stock Company (HOSE: MSH) is one of the leading enterprises in manufacturing export garments and bedding in Vietnam.  MSHs 9M2025 recorded net revenue of VND 4,149 billion (+8% YoY), profit after tax of VND 468 billion (+74% YoY), completing 75% and 95% of the yearly plan, respectively. In particular, Q3/2025 recorded the highest quarterly profit after tax in the companys history thanks to the negotiation of high value-added CMT orders and increased financial income. Q4/2025 is expected to remain stable thanks to the peak import season in preparation for the year-end holidays. In 2026, we believe that MSHs export activities to the US market will slow down due to the impact of tariffs shifting to 2026 and the market needs more time to test actual consumer demand and the acceptance of new price levels. Based on the DCF method, we update MSHs target price at VND 42,600; corresponding to an upside of 10.1%.  

The correction reflects concerns about overvalued AI stocks. US stock futures inched higher on Friday after a sharp selloff in the previous session, as renewed pressure on tech and AI-linked shares dragged Wall Street lower. On Thursday, the Dow fell 0.84%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.12%, and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 1.9%. High-flying AI names led the decline, with steep losses from Nvidia (-3.7%), AMD (-7.3%), and Palantir (-6.8%). The pullback reflected renewed concerns about stretched AI valuations, compounded by worries over a deeper labor-market slowdown. Challenger data showed 153,000 announced job cuts in October, the highest for that month in 22 years, much of it attributed to AI integration and cost optimization. With the government shutdown restricting official data releases, investors turned to private indicators that signaled softer economic conditions, further dampening sentiment. All three major indexes are on track to end the week lower, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq down 2.83% so far.   Trading in a range. VNINDEX closed at 1,642.64 (-12.25 points, -0.74%) with liquidity lower than the 20-session average. The market had 131 advancing stocks and 176 declining stocks. The groups of stocks exerting the greatest downward pressure on the market were VPB, VCB, HDB; the groups of stocks supporting the market were VIC, BCM, BMP. Foreign investors returned to net selling at a level of 1,067 billion VND.   Trading Strategy: Investors may consider short-term trades within the 1,600–1,700 range. If the market successfully retests the 1,600 level, investors can also deploy capital for medium- to long-term positions, focusing on stocks with strong momentum — such as those benefiting from an upgrade in market classification, robust earnings growth, or valuations that remain lower than the overall market average.  

▶ The index opened the session with a slight gap up 1.78 points after the previous recovery session. Selling pressure quickly weighed on the index with strong net selling pressure from foreign investors. The index recovered to the reference level in the afternoon session, but the index failed to maintain the reference level at the end of the session. ▶ At the end of the session, the VN-Index decreased by 12.25 points (-0.74%), reaching 1,642.64 points; the HNX-Index decreased by 0.55 points (-0.21%), reaching 266.15 points. Liquidity in the whole market continued to decline sharply, lower than the average of 20 sessions, at VND 20.3 trillion, equivalent to 690 million shares traded. Foreign investors strongly net sold VND 1,067 billion, of which the largest net selling value belongs to STB, VPB and HPG. On the contrary, MWG, VIC and VPI were the typical net buying stocks. ▶ Technical perspective: The index continues to trade in a narrow range, the market decreased slightly with decreasing liquidity. Short-term selling pressure appeared but was relatively weak and the recovery trend was not affected. The short-term market continues to trade in the range of 1,600 - 1,700 and needs a session with cash flow to confirm the new trend for the next phase. In the positive case: The market continues to trade in the range of 1,600 - 1,700 points. Liquidity increases in the same direction as the index, the large range and the spreading green color will strengthen the opportunity for the market to return to the uptrend. In the negative case: If it continues to break the 1,600 point mark, the market is likely to retest the 1,500-1,550 point range (this is also the old peak of the market in 2022). Strategy: Short-term investors should temporarily not buy new and wait for the market to form a price base. In case the market successfully returns to test 1,600 points, investors can disburse for medium- and long-term positions, focusing on groups of stocks with many driving forces such as benefiting from upgrades, strong business growth results; or lower valuation levels compared to the general market.

Maintain BUY rating, target price at 71,600 VND Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company (Vinamilk, HOSE: VNM) is the dairy company with the leading market share in Vietnam with the largest distribution system and dairy cow herd. VNM has the leading market share in most segments with a healthy asset structure and a consistent dividend payment policy. Based on the FCFF and P/E methods, we update our valuation and recommend BUY for VNM with a target price of VND 71,600, equivalent to an expected return of 23.4%. Update business results for Q3 and 9 months/2025 In Q3/2025, VNM recorded a new peak in consolidated net revenue of VND 16,953 billion (+9.1% YoY), with both domestic and overseas markets recording growth. However, Q3 net profit reached VND 2,511 billion, up only 4.5% YoY due to the impact of losses from associates incurred in the quarter related to the provision for investment in Miraka in New Zealand. The domestic market continued to recover well with revenue growing 4.4% YoY, contributed by e-commerce, new products and effective marketing campaigns. Exports remained the main driver of growth in overseas regions with Q4 revenue increasing 46.8%, key markets in Asia and Africa increased strongly, especially the Cambodian market. The operations of overseas subsidiaries also grew again compared to the same period.  Thus, in the first 9 months, VNM recorded revenue of VND 46,613 billion (+0.7% YoY) and net profit of VND 6,587 billion (-9.8% YoY). VNM has maintained a good recovery momentum for two consecutive quarters after a sharp decline in Q1 due to the impact of restructuring. However, net profit is still decreasing compared to the same period due to poor results in Q1.