Recommendations

▶ The index opened the trading session with a sharp drop of 83.90 points on the first day of the week due to concerns about the continuing conflict in the Middle East. Over the weekend, the US and Israeli attack on Iranian oil production and storage facilities exacerbated tensions, with WTI oil prices at one point rising to USD120/Bbl. Negative sentiment and sell-offs occurred on most Asian stock exchanges. The Vietnamese stock market was no exception, with sell orders at the floor price persisting throughout the session and no significant recovery. The VN-Index recorded its sharpest decline in history. ▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index fell 115.05 points (-6.51%) to 1,652.79 points; the HNX-Index fell 18.28 points (-7.21%) to 235.36 points. Market liquidity remained high, exceeding the 20-day average at VND 46.1 trillion, corresponding to 1,637 million shares traded. Foreign investors continued to net sell VND 348 billion today, with the largest net selling values in VHM, FPT, and STB. Conversely, MWG, VNM, and BSR were the stocks with net buying. ▶ Technical Perspective: The market experienced a sharp decline from the start of the session, with many stocks hitting their lower limit and showing no signs of recovery. High liquidity, weak demand, and overwhelming selling pressure caused the index to fall sharply. The VN-Index has temporarily dropped more than 13% from its recent peak, almost equivalent in percentage terms to the impact of the tariff news. Technically, short-term risks prevail as the VN-Index lost the 1,750 support level and retreated to the medium-term MA200 support level at 1,630. The market is likely to continue fluctuating around the 1,630 support level to retest demand and gradually form a bottom around this area. From a statistical perspective, we monitor the percentage of stocks trading above the 50-day moving average (EMA50) as an indicator to identify the market bottom. Historically, the VN-Index typically confirms its bottom when this ratio fluctuates between 30% and 40%, and peaks around 60-70%. With the current figure at around 40-45%, the data suggests there is still room for growth for most stocks. In the base scenario: A rebound after retesting the 1,800 support level will head towards the short-term previous peak at 1,900. The necessary conditions for the market to maintain an uptrend are continued improved liquidity (with the participation of institutional investors) and the gradual spread of capital to other sectors. In the negative scenario: The strong upward momentum with improved liquidity and market breadth indicates positive spillover effects, providing investors with a suitable stop-loss point in case the market receives unexpected negative news. Accordingly, in a negative scenario, if the VN-Index falls back to the previously accumulated sideways range around 1,600-1,700, investors may consider reducing their holdings to manage portfolio risk. Strategy: Short-term investors should prioritize staying out of the market because the risk factors of the conflict are very difficult to predict. For medium-term positions bought at low prices, investors can confidently hold positions in sectors such as steel and banking, but with moderate weighting.  

Oil prices surged, triggering a broad sell-off across markets. US stock futures dropped sharply on Monday as oil surged past $100 a barrel amid the escalating Middle East conflict, raising concerns that higher energy costs could slow growth and reignite inflation. Dow and S&P 500 futures fell 1.3% and 1.6%, respectively, while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 2%. With the Iran war entering its second week and oil shipments effectively blocked through the Strait of Hormuz, several Middle Eastern producers, including Kuwait, Iran, and the UAE, have cut crude output as available storage nears capacity. Wall Street was already pressured last week after weaker-than-expected payrolls data stoked inflation concerns linked to the conflict. The Dow finished last week 3% lower, the S&P 500 fell 2%, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.2%. Investors now turn to this week’s CPI and PCE inflation readings for directional cues, along with earnings from Oracle, Adobe, and Hewlett Packard Enterprise, among others.   Short term downtrend. The VN-Index closed at 1,767.84 (down 40.67 points, or 2.25%), with liquidity remaining consistent with the 20-day average. The market saw 88 gainers against 237 losers. The stock groups exerting the most downward pressure on the index were GAS, VIC, and GVR; conversely, BSR, DCM, and VPL were the primary drivers of the indexs gains. Foreign investors registered a net selling of 1,306 billion VND, with a focus on FPT, SSI, and VIC.   Trading Strategy: Short-term investors should prioritize staying on the sidelines given the unpredictable risks from geopolitical tensions. For medium-term positions accumulated at low prices, investors may continue holding exposure to sectors such as steel and banking but with moderate stock allocation.  

Highlights: The United States and Israel continue to strike multiple targets in Iran, while Tehran and its affiliated groups have retaliated by attacking bases, ports, and infrastructure in territories of Washington’s allies. Escalating tensions in the Middle East are pushing energy prices sharply higher. While inflationary pressure may rise again, Fed officials are likely to have less incentive to cut interest rates. Vietnam banking rates (Mar 6): Deposit rates continue to increase, with six banks raising rates above 8%. Fuel prices: Domestic gasoline and oil prices surged on the afternoon of March 5, with fuel prices jumping by more than VND 7,000 per liter.   Assessment: The market is facing negative impacts from the escalating conflict between the US–Israel alliance and Iran. Notably, oil prices have surged about 21% over the past week after the Strait of Hormuz—accounting for roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows—was reportedly closed. This development is increasing pressure on inflation and global economic growth. Markets are now expecting the Fed to slow its pace of rate cuts. These factors are unfavorable for Vietnam, which is a net energy importer. Domestically, fuel prices have spiked, adding pressure on inflation, interest rates, and the exchange rate. At the same time, banks have raised deposit rates to meet funding demand for economic growth. Foreign investors also recorded a strong net selling week amid a global “flight to safety.”     Technical View: VN-Index closed the week at 1,767.84 points (-112 points; -5.98%) with elevated liquidity. The market has effectively erased its post-Tet rally and returned to the previous trading range below 1,800 points. If the index breaks below 1,750, there is a high probability it could fall deeper toward the 1,700 level.   Investment Ideas: Short-term investors should prioritize staying on the sidelines given the unpredictable risks from geopolitical tensions. For medium-term positions accumulated at low prices, investors may continue holding exposure to sectors such as steel and banking but with moderate stock allocation.  

▶ The index opened the trading session with a gap down of 7.43 points after a correction pressure at the end of the previous session. The VN-Index continued to face strong net selling pressure from foreign investors due to concerns about the Middle East conflict, although selling pressure in Asian stock markets eased. Stock groups that had risen sharply during the markets recovery in previous sessions, including the securities sector, experienced a sharp correction today. ▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index fell 40.67 points (-2.25%) to 1,767.84 points; the HNX-Index fell 3.95 points (-1.53%) to 253.64 points. Market liquidity remained high, above the 20-day average, at 35.8 trillion VND, corresponding to 1,202 million shares traded. Foreign investors continued their strong net selling of VND 1,306 billion today, with the largest net selling values in FPT, SSI, and VIC. Conversely, BSR, DCM, and MWG were the stocks with the largest net buying. ▶ Technical perspective: The market experienced a sharp decline with overwhelming selling pressure throughout the session. Liquidity remains high, and there is no panic selling pressure yet, but weak demand is preventing the market from recovering. Technically, short-term risks prevail as the VN-Index lost the 1,800-point support level and retreated to the MA100 support level at 1,750. If demand continues to be weak and the market fails to hold the MA100 level, the VN-Index could fall further to the MA200 at 1,630 points for testing. From a statistical perspective, we monitor the percentage of stocks trading above the 50-day moving average (EMA50) as an indicator to identify the market bottom. Historically, the VN-Index usually confirms a bottom when this percentage fluctuates between 30% and 40% and peaks around 60-70%. With the current figure at around 40-45%, the data suggests that there is still room for growth for most stocks. In the base scenario: The market rebounding after retesting the 1,800 support level will head towards the short-term previous peak at 1,900. The necessary conditions for the market to maintain an uptrend are continued improved liquidity (with the participation of institutional investors) and the gradual spread of capital to other sectors. In the negative scenario: The strong upward momentum with improved liquidity and market breadth indicates positive spread, creating a suitable stop-loss point for investors should the market receive unexpected negative information. Accordingly, in the negative scenario, if the VN-Index falls to the previously accumulated sideways range around 1,600-1,700, investors may consider reducing their holdings to manage portfolio risk. Strategy: Medium- to long-term investors can buy into sectors that have not yet risen and have a solid accumulation base. However, when the index has risen sharply and entered higher resistance levels, it is preferable to hold and be ready to take short-term profits rather than making new purchases, especially with stocks that move in line with the market.  

Unless prolonged, the Vietnamese oil market will not be significantly impacted. PVOil and Petrolimex (Vietnams two leading petroleum retailers, holding over 70% of the market share) have inventories to ensure sufficient supply for the market in March.  Inflation could increase if fuel costs rise. Fuel costs directly affect transportation costs, potentially pushing up the prices of goods sold on the market or impacting business profit margins. Although the impact is no longer as significant as during the 2006-2015 period, if oil prices increase by more than 10% in 2022 alone, it could push the overall CPI up by an additional 0.36%. Interest rates showed initial reactions. The overnight interbank interest rate surged to over 10% on 2 March 2026. This could be a reaction to the global situation as global capital flows showed signs of seeking safe-haven assets like USD and concerns about inflation caused by conflict. These factors pushed interest rates and the DXY higher. Although this is only temporary, interest rates may continue to remain at new high levels in the future.