Recommendations

Highlights: December 18: After a two-day meeting, the Fed decided to cut interest rates by 0.25%, bringing the rate range to 4.25–4.50%. Additionally, it is expected to implement only two rate cuts next year, aiming to bring the benchmark rate to 3.75–4.0% by the end of 2025. Closing session on December 18: The Dow Jones index recorded its biggest drop in over four months, plunging 1,123.03 points (equivalent to 2.6%) to 42,326.87 points. December 20, 2024: The USD continued its upward momentum above 108. The central exchange rate of the Vietnamese dong against the USD increased by 26 VND, reaching 24,304 VND.   Technical view: The VN-Index closed the week at 1,257.5 (-5.07 points; -0.4%) with liquidity continuing to decline on the weekly chart. Sectors that performed well included media, tourism, and entertainment. The market currently lacks a strong leading sector, and capital flow is primarily directed toward small-cap stocks. Foreign investors continued to sell net approximately 1.4 trillion VND this week. The index has nearly erased the strong gains seen on December 5. The main trend of the index remains fluctuating within the 1,200–1,300 range.     Investment ideas: A short-term trading strategy would be more appropriate during this period. Many stocks have reached their target profit-taking levels, and short-term investors can consider partially selling and fully taking profits when the VN-Index approaches the 1,300 range. Investors can increase their holdings but should not exceed 50% of their current stock holdings.

U.S. stocks slightly recover after a 10-day losing streak – Core PCE Price Index to be released this week. On Thursday, during regular trading, the Dow inched up 0.04%, breaking a 10-day losing streak, the longest since 1974. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both fell, shedding 0.09% and 0.1%, respectively. All three major indices are on track to end the week with significant losses following the Fed’s hawkish shift. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated this week that the PCE is likely to show the 12-month inflation rate remains above the central bank’s 2% target. His comments followed the Fed’s widely expected quarter-point rate cut, but the central bank indicated fewer reductions in 2025 due to persistent inflation.    Selling pressure dominates most sectors. VNINDEX closed at 1,254.8 points, down 11.3 points (-0.89%) with higher trading volume compared to the 20-day average. All industry groups declined today, except for the oil and gas sector which maintained a green color. Foreign investors net sell 480 billion dong.    Trading Strategy: Many stocks have reached their target profit levels, allowing short-term traders to partially sell and lock in profits. Consider completely exiting positions when the VN-Index approaches the 1,300 level.   Sell recommendation: ACB  

▶ Under the influence of the world financial market, Vietnam stock index maintained the red color since the beginning of the trading session. Notably, foreign investors resumed to their net selling with increased value. Market liquidity improved and trading value was about 1.5 times compared to yesterday. ▶ At the end of the trading session, VN-Index decreased by 11.33 points (-0.89%), closing at 1,254.67 points; HNX-Index increased by 0.11 points (+0.05%), reaching 227.54 points. Market liquidity reached VND 20.7 trillion, which was equivalent to about 935.34 million shares being traded. Foreign investors returned to net selling VND 479.57 billion, mainly concentrated in SSI, VPB and VCB. ▶ Technical perspective: The market consistently stayed in red throughout the trading session and ended with a 11-point decrease while VN-Index was approaching the MA20 support level. Improved trading volume showed that selling pressure has grown, meanwhile buying pressure was not strong enough when VN-Index touched 1,250 point. In the upcoming sessions, VN-Index will likely continue to approach the 1,250 – 1,260 zone until it attracts the money flow back. In the base case, VN-Index needs to form an absorption zone with a narrow range as well as volume before entering the strong resistance zone of 1,290 – 1,300.  Strategy: As many stocks have reached the target profit-taking thresholds, short-term investors can sell a part and take profit of the remaining when VN-Index reaches the 1,300 zone. Investors can increase their stock proportions but should not exceed 50% of the amount are holding. And they should refrain from buy new stocks until the index has successfully surpassed 1,300 points or returned to retest the 1,200 - 1,220 zone. 

Global stocks tumble – The Fed announces only two interest rate cuts in 2025. During regular trading on Wednesday, the Dow dropped 1,123.03 points, or 2.58%, marking its 10th consecutive day of losses—the longest losing streak since 1974. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also fell sharply, losing 2.95% and 3.56%, respectively. The downturn followed the Feds decision to implement a widely expected quarter-point rate cut, coupled with the news that the central bank plans fewer rate reductions next year than previously anticipated. The Fed now projects only two rate cuts in 2025, down from the four cuts it had forecast in September. The Fed also lowered its forecast for the unemployment rate and raised expectations for core inflation and economic growth, sending Treasury yields higher.    The oil and gas sector shows signs of attracting capital. VNINDEX closed at 1,263.79, up 1.22 points (+0.1%) with lower-than-average trading volume compared to the past 20 sessions. . Most sectors recovered slightly, with notable strength in the oil and gas sector. Foreign investors net buy 6 billion dong. In a baseline scenario, the VN-Index needs to form a narrow range with strong volume absorption before challenging the 1,290-1,300 resistance levels.   Trading Strategy: Many stocks have reached their target profit levels, allowing short-term traders to partially sell and lock in profits. Consider completely exiting positions when the VN-Index approaches the 1,300 level. Sell recommendation: MWG NTP  

▶ Stock market ended in green color after a series of small sideways and corrections, although the increase was still limited. Foreign investors’ selling and buying amount was quite balanced. Market liquidity remained sluggish when the trading value was below the average of 20 sessions, showing the cautiousness of money flow. ▶ At the end of the trading session, the VN-Index increased by 4.28 points (+0.34%), closing at 1,266.00 points; the HNX-Index increased by 0.54 points (+0.24%), reaching 227.43 points. Market liquidity reached VND 14.79 trillion, which was equivalent to about 639.55 million shares being traded. Foreign investors net bought VND 5.35 billion, mainly concentrated in FPT, HDB and HPG. ▶ Technical perspective: The market continued to record a trading session with a narrow price range and exhausted liquidity, which showed that the short-term money flow has not improved yet. In general, VN-Index is still in an accumulation phase to attract the liquidity to return. In the coming sessions, it is likely to fluctuate around the 1,250 – 1,260 point area to test support. In the base case, VN-Index needs to form an absorption zone with a narrow range as well as liquidity before entering the strong resistance area of 1,290 – 1,300. Strategy: As many stocks have reached the target profit-taking thresholds, short-term investors can sell a part and take profit of the remaining when VN-Index reaches the 1,300 zone. Investors can increase their stock proportions but should not exceed 50% of the amount are holding. And they should refrain from buy new stocks until the index has successfully surpassed 1,300 points or returned to retest the 1,200 - 1,220 zone.