Vietnam Insight

▶ Recognizing positive macroeconomic news as the world moves closer to an agreement to end the war, the VN-Index recovered, gaining nearly 8 points after the ATC session. Although the increase was limited due to selling pressure from the VIN group, overall market sentiment showed improvement. Market breadth favored gainers, with 209 stocks rising and only 95 falling, while 67 remained unchanged on the HOSE exchange. The oil and gas sector, however, declined due to a sharp correction in oil prices. Liquidity widened compared to the previous trading session, reaching approximately 27 trillion VND across all three exchanges. Foreign investors were net buyers, with block trades of VIC accounting for 4,692 billion VND. Excluding this block trade, this group is still a net seller since the beginning of the month, and this trend is unlikely to reverse.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index rose 7.66 points (+0.43%), closing at 1,799.31 points. The HNX-Index rose 8.42 points (+2.78%), reaching 310.91 points. Total trading volume across all three exchanges reached approximately 27 trillion VND, corresponding to about 898 million shares traded. Foreign investors net bought 4,155 billion VND during the session, with block trades in VIC accounting for 4,692 billion VND. Excluding VIC, the stocks experiencing the strongest net selling were VHM, VPB, and VCB; while GMD, HPG, and MWG saw net buying.

▶ Technical perspective: Supported by positive macroeconomic signals related to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the market continues its upward momentum and is approaching the important resistance level of 1,800 points. The VN-Index is currently showing a relatively solid price base accumulation around this area. Notably, after a period of quiet trading, liquidity has significantly improved and is gradually increasing, reflecting the return of capital to the market.

In the coming period, we expect the VN-Index to continue its recovery trend and aim for the next resistance level around 1,850 points. The continued improvement in liquidity will be a crucial factor in bolstering investor confidence, confirming the possibility of ending the previous correction phase and ushering in a more positive growth phase for the market.

In the base-case scenario: A peace agreement between the US and Iran could help reduce inflationary pressure, improve global growth prospects, and support capital flows back to emerging markets, including Vietnam, in the second half of 2026. Furthermore, Vietnam could be added to MSCI's upgrade watchlist and begin receiving passive capital inflows from September 2026 after being upgraded to emerging market status by FTSE. In this scenario, the VN-Index could aim for the 2,000–2,100 point range.

In the negative-case scenario: Global reserves have decreased sharply during the recent war. If no agreement is reached in June-July, oil prices are likely to surge during the peak summer months. With these negative developments, risky assets in general and the VN-Index face a deeper correction (retesting the 1,580 point level).

Strategy: During this period, investors can focus on selecting stocks with sideways consolidation price structures and strong business growth, rather than solely focusing on the VN-Index's fluctuations (recent gains are largely driven by the VIC group). Based on our observations, many stocks in sectors such as real estate, banking, construction materials, and securities have consolidation price structures, improving business results, and are suitable for investors to invest in anticipation of Q2 and Q3 2026 earnings. Investors should limit the use of margin trading during this period when the trend is not clearly defined.