Vietnam Insight

▶ VIC's impressive solo performance helped the VN-Index reclaim the 1,800 mark in Wednesday's trading session. However, the market was highly polarized, with the index being mostly supported by VIN group stocks, while most other stocks were in the red. The VIC-VHM duo alone contributed approximately 23 points to the VN-Index's increase. Liquidity remained stable at the 20-day average, with a notable event today being the large net selling value of VHM, executed via put-through transactions.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index rose 25 points (+1.41%), closing at 1,800.65 points; the HNX-Index increased 0.31 points (+0.12%), reaching 252.72 points. Liquidity across all three exchanges increased slightly to 30.9 trillion VND, corresponding to approximately over 1 billion shares traded. Notably, foreign investors widened their net selling position today, dominated by net selling in VHM (-3,564 billion VND). Conversely, stocks that saw net buying included VIC, VCB, and SSI.

▶ Technical perspective: The VN-Index continued to rise and closed near the important psychological threshold of 1,800 points. However, in essence, this session's movement was sideways if we exclude the approximately 26 points contributed by the VinGroup stocks. Liquidity remained at an average level, capital flows did not spread significantly, and the market still lacked a leading group to guide the next trend. In the short term, the index is likely to continue heading towards the 1,820–1,840 point range before a correction occurs. In the medium term, the VN-Index is still in a consolidation phase, fluctuating within the 1,580–1,800 point range.

In the base case: The ceasefire agreement improved investor sentiment, but the two sides have not yet reached an agreement to completely end the conflict. During this volatile period, the VN-Index continues to move sideways around 1,580–1,800 points.

In a negative scenario: Prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could further tighten global oil supply, keeping oil prices high for an extended period. This scenario increases the risk of stagflation (high inflation coupled with low economic growth). Historically, such environments are unfavorable for the stock market and could lead to a deeper correction in the VN-Index. If the market continues to decisively lose the 1,580 support level, accompanied by weak recovery sessions, the downtrend could be further reinforced.

Strategy: Investors should limit chasing rallies and selectively choose stocks showing improvements in business operations. Currently, capital flows tend to favor sectors with domestic momentum such as public investment, banking, and construction materials. For the real estate sector, after a period of deep discounts, signs of capital returning have appeared in recent sessions. Meanwhile, the securities sector continues to be supported by the market upgrade narrative, thereby maintaining a certain appeal to investors.