Vietnam Insight

▶ On Friday's trading session (February 13th), the market was relatively quiet, with the index fluctuating around 1,815–1,825 points amidst a cautious sentiment in the final session before the Lunar New Year holiday. Differentiation was observed across many sectors with narrow price ranges and low liquidity. Notably, foreign investors extended their net buying streak to the fourth consecutive session, despite strong selling pressure recorded at FPT with a value of nearly 800 billion VND.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index increased by 10.00 points (+0.55%), closing at 1,824.09 points; the HNX-Index increased by 0.58 points (+0.23%), reaching 257.06 points. Total market liquidity reached 21 trillion VND, a slight increase compared to the previous session, corresponding to over 0.70 billion shares traded. Foreign investors continued to net buy 196 billion VND, with significant net buying recorded in KDH, VIC, and DGC. Conversely, typical net selling was seen in FPT, VHM, and ACB.

▶ Technical perspective: The VN-Index traded sideways throughout the session, closing right at the MA20 level. Liquidity decreased sharply compared to previous sessions, reflecting cautious sentiment as the market approached the holiday. Despite low liquidity, the market showed clear positive signs; the VN-Index did not experience strong selling pressure, instead moving slowly with weakening selling pressure. More broadly, the VN-Index is currently fluctuating within an upward trending price channel. Technical indicators, after touching oversold levels, are showing improvement. If this signal is strengthened, the VN-Index will enter a consolidation phase, opening up clearer room for recovery.

From a statistical perspective, we monitor the percentage of stocks trading above the 50-day moving average (EMA50) as an indicator to identify the market bottom. Historically, the VN-Index usually confirms a bottom when this percentage fluctuates between 30% and 40%, peaking around 60-70%. With the current figure at around 40-45%, the data suggests that there is still room for growth for most stocks. 

Strategy: Correction sessions present opportunities for investors to increase their positions. We recommend focusing on stocks with good business results and promising growth prospects in 2026 that have not yet achieved corresponding growth, such as private banking, retail, securities, and steel. Stocks showing positive growth potential, such as state-owned banks and industrial real estate stocks, require selective evaluation, and buying at high prices should be avoided.