Vietnam Insight

▶ Following the "bleeding-stop" session at the beginning of the week, Tuesday’s trading on February 10 saw the market engage in a fierce tug-of-war, ending the session near the reference level. Despite a recovery of nearly 20 points during the morning session, increased selling pressure in the afternoon forced many stocks to reverse downward. The market showed a clear divergence as VinGroup stocks surged and acted as a pillar for the overall index, notably VIC hitting the ceiling price, VHM (+6.63%), and VRE (+2.66%). Conversely, the Financial and Oil & Gas sectors mostly declined, with blue-chip stocks like MSN, VNM, and FPT also unable to escape the general trend. Notably, foreign investors reversed to become net buyers, with significant net buying value recorded in MBB (570 billion VND) and VIC (210 billion VND).

▶ At the close of the session, the VN-Index edged down by 0.79 points (-0.05%) to 1,754.02; the HNX-Index fell 2.24 points (-0.87%) to 253.77. Total market liquidity reached 30 trillion VND, an improvement over the previous session, corresponding to more than 1.05 billion shares traded. Foreign investors turned into net buyers with a value of 761 billion VND, with prominent net buying recorded in MBB, VIC, and MWG. On the other hand, notable net selling occurred in VCB, BID, and FPT.

▶ VIC (+6.95%), VHM (+6.63%), and VCK (+6.91%) were the three stocks that contributed most to supporting the index. In contrast, BID (-6.92%), GAS (-6.91%), and VCB (-2.92%) were the three tickers that dragged the market down the most.

▶ Real Estate, Essential Retail (Consumer Staples), and Professional & Commercial Services were the three sectors recording the largest contributions to the index's decline in today's session. Key representatives included VIC, AIG, and VEF.

▶ Technical perspective: VN-Index appears to be moving sideways in terms of index points, yet there is a strong divergence among stock groups. Liquidity remains low, with cash flow showing a slowing and cautious trend. The index continues to weaken as it moves below short-term MA lines, and technical signals have yet to show clear improvement; the market is likely to remain prudent ahead of the upcoming holiday break. VN-Index is currently fluctuating at the lower boundary of its upward price channel. This correction is necessary for the market to re-accumulate its price base, creating a foundation for a sustainable uptrend in the near future.

From a statistical perspective, we monitor the percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50) as an indicator to identify market bottoms. Historically, the VN-Index often confirms a bottom when this ratio fluctuates between 30% and 40%, and peaks around the 60-70% zone. With the current figure sitting at approximately 40-45%, data suggests that growth potential remains for the majority of stocks.

Base Case: After surpassing 1,800, the market is returning to test the upper boundary of the sideways range (around 1,720-1,780). For the uptrend to be maintained, we expect buying-side cash flow to emerge around this zone, helping the VN-Index return to its growth momentum with improved liquidity and positive market breadth.

Bearish Case: In a negative scenario, if the VN-Index continues to drop sharply and loses the previously accumulated sideways channel of 1,600-1,700, investors should consider reducing their exposure to manage portfolio risk.

Strategy: Corrective sessions open up opportunities for investors to increase their positions. We recommend focusing on stocks with strong business results and positive growth prospects for 2026 that have not yet seen corresponding price appreciation, such as private banking, retail, securities, and steel. Stocks that have seen positive gains, such as state-owned banks and industrial park real estate, require selective evaluation and investors should avoid chasing high prices.