Company Insight

Update HOLD rating, target price at 78,100 VND

Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company (Vinamilk, HOSE: VNM) is the dairy company with the leading market share in Vietnam with the largest distribution system and dairy cow herd. VNM has the leading market share in most segments with a healthy asset structure and a consistent dividend payment policy. VNM recently announced its 2025 business results, reaching a new revenue peak and marking its third consecutive quarter of continuous growth. Based on the FCFF and P/E methods, we update our valuation and recommend BUY for VNM with a target price of VND 78,100, equivalent to an expected return of 12.2%.

Update business results for Q4/2025 and FY2025

In Q4/2025, VNM recorded a new peak in consolidated net revenue at VND 17,034 billion (+0.5% QoQ, +10.1% YoY) and PAT of VND 2,827 billion (+12.6% QoQ, +31.7% YoY), marking the third consecutive quarter of revenue growth recovery. Although the gross profit margin (GPM) only improved by 30 basis points YoY, better cost management helped Q4 profit after tax grow strongly by 31.7% YoY. The Q4/2025 GPM reached 40.4%, increasing slightly compared to the same period last year but declining compared to the previous quarter, mainly due to a 4.8 percentage point QoQ decrease in the GPM of foreign markets and a 60 basis point QoQ decrease in the domestic market GPM.

Consequently, for the full year 2025, VNM recorded revenue of VND 63,646 billion (+3% YoY) and net income (NI) remained flat at VND 9,414 billion. Despite a decline in Q1 due to the restructuring of the distribution system, the recovery results in the remaining three quarters ensured that full-year revenue still recorded growth. Cost control efforts in the second half of the year helped the total expense ratio including both selling and general & administrative expenses reach 24.4% for the full year 2025, showing a decrease of 2 basis points YoY.