Vietnam Insight

▶ Extending the losing streak in the trading week leading up to the Lunar New Year, the VN-Index recorded another sharp decline of 27 points, as selling pressure intensified and spread across many sectors. The market opened below the reference price and plunged toward the end of the afternoon session, closing at nearly its lowest level of the day. Specifically, the Securities and Real Estate groups recorded the steepest declines, with many tickers dropping by 3-5%. Liquidity also surged compared to the previous session, with the matched-order value on HOSE reaching approximately 35 trillion VND. Following the general trend, foreign investors continued to be net sellers, although the selling value narrowed.

▶ At the end of the trading session, the VN-Index decreased by 27.07 points (-1.52%), closing at 1,755.49 points; the HNX-Index fell by 6.76 points (-2.57%) to 256.28 points. Total market liquidity reached 38 trillion VND, corresponding to over 1.26 billion shares traded. Foreign investors net sold 991 billion VND, with prominent net selling values recorded in VCB (-610 billion VND), VIC (-313 billion VND), and HDB (-195 billion VND). On the buying side, notable net purchases included MBB (440 billion VND), HPG (197 billion VND), and STB (153 billion VND).

▶ Technical perspective: Profit-taking pressure amid persistently low liquidity has prevented the VN-Index from breaking out of its short-term correction phase. Foreign investors have continued to extend their net selling streak, adding further pressure on the index. The VN-Index’s break below its MA50 indicates that selling pressure is currently dominant. However, from a structural perspective, the index is still trading near the upper bound of its most recent consolidation range—consistent with our base-case scenario that the broader uptrend remains intact.

Notably, the VN-Index is gradually approaching oversold territory, with the RSI closing at 37, suggesting the potential for short-term technical rebounds in the coming sessions. In addition, historical patterns indicate that market performance in the periods immediately before and after the Lunar New Year holiday tends to be positive, which could provide near-term support to market sentiment.

From a quantitative perspective, we monitor the percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) as an indicator to identify market bottoms. Historically, the VN-Index typically confirms a bottom when this ratio fluctuates between 30% and 40%, and tends to peak around the 60%–70% range. With the current figure sitting around 40-45%, the data suggests there is still room for growth for the majority of stocks.

In the base scenario: After surpassing 1,800, the market is now retesting the upper boundary of the sideways range (around 1,720-1,780). For the uptrend to continue, we expect buying pressure to appear around this area, helping the VN-Index return to an upward trend with improved liquidity and positive market breadth.

In the downside scenario: If the VN-Index continues to fall sharply and loses the previously established sideways price channel of 1,600-1,700, investors may consider reducing their holdings to manage portfolio risk.

Strategy: Corrective sessions present opportunities for investors to increase their positions. We recommend focusing on stocks with solid business results and positive growth prospects for 2026 that have not yet seen corresponding price appreciation, such as private commercial banks, retail, securities, and steel. Stocks showing positive growth potential, such as state-owned banks and industrial real estate stocks, require selective evaluation, and buying at these price levels should be avoided.