Vietnam Insight

▶ Selling pressure returned on Thursday, causing the market to close lower. After a series of consecutive declines, VinGroup's stocks unexpectedly rebounded, supporting the index and preventing a deeper drop, with VHM and VIC reaching their upper limit. Conversely, most sectors experienced sharp declines, with the VN30 group falling nearly 19 points. A positive sign was the reduced liquidity as selling pressure intensified. Foreign investors continued to be net sellers, with the largest net selling value in FPT (821 billion VND); conversely, stocks that saw net buying included MWG, MBB, GAS, etc.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index lost 8.87 points (-0.5%), closing at 1,782.56 points; the HNX-Index fell 2.91 points (-1.09%), reaching 263.04 points. Market liquidity reached 29 trillion VND, corresponding to over 885 million shares traded. Foreign investors net sold 1,256 billion VND, with significant net selling recorded in FPT (-821 billion VND), VCB (-190 billion VND), and VHM (-120 billion VND). Conversely, notable net buying included MWG (180 billion VND), MBB (81 billion VND), and GAS (51 billion VND).

▶ Technical perspective: Ahead of the Tet Holiday, market liquidity has gradually declined while profit-taking emerged across the market - a pattern consistently observed in previous Tet periods. If history repeats, liquidity is expected to recover after the holiday. The VN-Index continues to maintain a healthy uptrend, trading above its MA50 and successfully holding support from the previous sideways consolidation despite low-liquidity pullbacks. We expect the index to trade in a narrow range of 1,750–1,780 in the coming sessions. Momentum remains neutral, with RSI around 42. A sustained uptrend would likely be confirmed by a post-holiday recovery accompanied by improving liquidity near key support levels. 

From a quantitative perspective, we monitor the percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) as an indicator to identify market bottoms. Historically, the VN-Index typically confirms a bottom when this ratio fluctuates between 30% and 40%, and tends to peak around the 60%–70% range. With the current figure sitting above 46%, the data suggests there is still room for growth for the majority of stocks.

Base Case Scenario: After surpassing the 1,800 threshold, the market is expected to continue its upward trajectory toward a fair valuation zone of approximately 2,000. There are currently no technical resistance levels ahead. The necessary conditions for the market to sustain this uptrend are continued improvement in liquidity (with the participation of institutional investors) and cash flow gradually spreading to other sectors.

Bearish Case Scenario: The strong momentum, coupled with improved liquidity and market breadth, indicates a positive dispersion that provides investors with a suitable stop-loss point should the market encounter unexpected negative news. Accordingly, in a negative scenario where the VN-Index drops sharply and breaks below the previously accumulated sideway channel around 1,600-1,700, investors may consider reducing their exposure to manage portfolio risk.

Strategy: Corrective sessions present opportunities for investors to increase their positions. We recommend focusing on stocks with solid business results and positive growth prospects for 2026 that have not yet seen corresponding price appreciation, such as private commercial banks, retail, securities, and steel. Stocks showing positive growth potential, such as state-owned banks and industrial real estate stocks, require selective evaluation, and buying at these price levels should be avoided.