Vietnam Insight

▶ In Tuesday's trading session, the market fluctuated within a narrow range and closed with a slight increase of nearly 7 points. Recovery signals appeared in several stocks as they recorded ceiling price increases, such as GMD, KBC, VGC, GEX… The Banking and Securities groups, while not increasing too strongly, played a role in maintaining the rhythm for the VN-Index. Foreign investors continued to be net sellers; however, the net selling pressure has cooled down. Market liquidity remained at a good level, with the total market value reaching more than 36 trillion VND. Market breadth was quite positive as the number of gaining stocks (406) outperformed the number of declining stocks (297). 

▶ At the end of the trading session, the VN-Index increased by 6.9 points (+0.38%), closing at 1,813.40 points; the HNX-Index increased by 4.79 points (+1.84%), reaching 265.18 points. Total market liquidity reached 36 trillion VND, corresponding to more than 1.12 billion shares traded. Foreign investors narrowed their net selling streak, with a net value of 623 billion VND, in which prominent net selling value was recorded in VIC (-294 billion VND), PNJ (-228 billion VND), and VCB (-195 billion VND). On the other side, typical net buys included HPG, MBB, SZC … 

▶ KSF (9.94%), GAS (+2.18%), GEE (+6.96%) were the three stocks that contributed the most to supporting the index. Conversely, BID (-1.64%), VHM (-1.32%), MWG (-2.35%) were the three tickers that took away the most points from the market. 

▶ Transportation, Telecommunications Services, and Commercial & Professional Services were the three industry groups recording the largest contributions to supporting the index in today's trading session. Typical representatives were GMD, VGI, and TV2.

▶ Technical perspective: The VN-Index ended the session with a slight gain of nearly 7 points, with market breadth leaning toward the buyers. Cash flow was concentrated in industrial real estate, retail, and seaports. Technically, the RSI remains in neutral territory, while volatility and liquidity are hovering near average levels (according to the ATR), suggesting that short-term correction risks remain under control. We maintain our view that the primary market trend remains bullish; the index is currently trading above the MA50 and is positioned at the upper bound of the sideways range established in the second half of 2025.

From a quantitative perspective, We monitor the percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) as an indicator to identify market bottoms. Historically, the VN-Index typically confirms a bottom when this ratio fluctuates between 30% and 40%, and tends to peak around the 60%–70% range. With the current figure sitting above 43%, the data suggests there is still room for growth for the majority of stocks.

Base Case Scenario: After surpassing the 1,800 threshold, the market is expected to continue its upward trajectory toward a fair valuation zone of approximately 2,000. There are currently no technical resistance levels ahead. The necessary conditions for the market to sustain this uptrend are continued improvement in liquidity (with the participation of institutional investors) and cash flow gradually spreading to other sectors.

Bearish Case Scenario: The strong momentum, coupled with improved liquidity and market breadth, indicates a positive dispersion that provides investors with a suitable stop-loss point should the market encounter unexpected negative news. Accordingly, in a negative scenario where the VN-Index drops sharply and breaks below the previously accumulated sideway channel around 1,600-1,700, investors may consider reducing their exposure to manage portfolio risk.

Strategy: Corrective sessions present opportunities for investors to increase their positions. We recommend focusing on stocks with solid business results and positive growth prospects for 2026 that have not yet seen corresponding price appreciation, such as private commercial banks, retail, securities, and steel.