Vietnam Insight

▶ The market continued to record a losing session at the open of the trading week, featured by heavy sell-off pressure on Vingroup stocks; however, late-session buying force helped the index recover to close with only a 22-point drop, successfully reclaiming the 1,800 mark. Liquidity rose slightly as selling pressure increased, with total market transaction value reaching nearly 35 trillion VND. Foreign investors ramped up net selling, focusing on the duo VIC and VHM, as well as blue-chip stocks like VCB, VRE, and HPG.

▶ At the end of the session, the VN-Index fell by 22.54 points (-1.23%), closing at 1,806.50 points; the HNX-Index rose by 4.26 points (+1.66%), reaching 260.39 points. Total market liquidity reached 35 trillion VND, equivalent to more than 1.12 billion shares traded. Foreign investors recorded a strong net selling session with a net value of 2,467 billion VND, in which prominent net selling values were recorded in VIC (-543 billion VND), VHM (-328 billion VND), and VCB (-193 billion VND). On the other side, notable net buys included MSN, PNJ, BSR, etc.

▶ Technical perspective: Heavyweight stocks, led by the Vingroup stocks, faced strong profit-taking pressure, dragging the VN-Index down by more than 22 points intraday. Despite this, market breadth remained relatively resilient, with decliners only slightly outnumbering advancers. The VN-Index fell over 50 points at its low, testing the MA50 and the higher bound of the recent sideways range, where buying demand emerged and drove a sharp recovery, leaving a long lower-wick candlestick. Technically, RSI stayed neutral, while price movement and volume were in line with average ATR levels, indicating contained downside risk. We maintain our view that the market’s primary trend remains upward. The real estate stock group, notably VIC related stocks, remains in a downward trend with no clear signs of bottoming out yet.

From a quantitative perspective, We monitor the percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) as an indicator to identify market bottoms. Historically, the VN-Index typically confirms a bottom when this ratio fluctuates between 30% and 40%, and tends to peak around the 60%–70% range. With the current figure sitting above 43%, the data suggests there is still room for growth for the majority of stocks.

Base Case Scenario: After surpassing the 1,800 threshold, the market is expected to continue its upward trajectory toward a fair valuation zone of approximately 2,000. There are currently no technical resistance levels ahead. The necessary conditions for the market to sustain this uptrend are continued improvement in liquidity (with the participation of institutional investors) and cash flow gradually spreading to other sectors.

Bearish Case Scenario: The strong momentum, coupled with improved liquidity and market breadth, indicates a positive dispersion that provides investors with a suitable stop-loss point should the market encounter unexpected negative news. Accordingly, in a negative scenario where the VN-Index drops sharply and breaks below the previously accumulated sideway channel around 1,600-1,700, investors may consider reducing their exposure to manage portfolio risk.

▶ Strategy: Corrective sessions present opportunities for investors to increase their positions. We recommend focusing on stocks with solid business results and positive growth prospects for 2026 that have not yet seen corresponding price appreciation, such as private commercial banks, retail, securities, and steel.