Company Insight

Techcombank (TCB) has reaffirmed its position as a leading digital bank, driven by a strategic focus on the high-potential real estate and mortgage sectors. However, TCB is now signaling a shift toward a more diversified loan portfolio, aiming to reduce its real estate exposure to 20-25% while increasing its retail lending presence. Furthermore, the bank's ecosystem has been significantly strengthened by TCBS (following its 2025 IPO), which now contributes over 20% of the group's profit and leads the market in Investment Banking (IB), margin lending, and brokerage services. Based on these positive business prospects and a valuation rollout to 2026, TCB is valued at VND 43,700 per share.

2025, TCB achieved a Profit Before Tax (PBT) of VND 32,538 billion (+18.2% YoY), surpassing the plan approved by the General Meeting of Shareholders by 103%. The Q4/2025 earnings were driven by:
1. Positive credit growth
2. Non-interest income: Gains from FX, investment portfolios, bad debt recovery, and partly due to the absence of one-off expenses following the termination of a partnership with an insurance provider;
3. Operational cost control: The consolidated Cost-to-Income Ratio (CIR) dropped from 32.71% in 2024 to 28.5% in 2025. 4. Controlled provisioning expenses: Provisioning costs saw only a slight increase of 8.3%, maintaining a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio below 1.1%.
For our 2026 forecasts, we have revised TCB’s pre-tax profit upward to VND 38,021 billion, implying 17% YoY growth (from VND 36,809 billion in our previous report). This upward revision is driven by non-interest income, along with improvements in asset quality (lower projected credit costs) and better operating efficiency (lower CIR). We remain conservative in forecasting 2026 credit growth at 16%, with NIM at 3.7% for the full year. The NPL ratio is projected at 1.1%, while credit costs are estimated at 0.7%.