Vietnam Insight

▶ The index opened the trading session with a 10.34-point gain after the recovery at the end of the previous session. Foreign investors continued their net selling streak for the fourth consecutive session after strong net buying in previous sessions. The market correction occurred when the index reached its historical peak, surpassing the 1,900 mark. Insurance stocks continued to show positive growth thanks to information related to interest rate adjustments.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index increased by 14.33 points (+0.77%), reaching 1,879.13 points; the HNX-Index decreased by 0.88 points (-0.35%), to 252.28 points. Market liquidity during the recovery session, at times touching the 1,900 mark, remained positive above the 20-day average, reaching 39.2 trillion VND, corresponding to 1,250 million shares traded. Foreign investors net sold VND 1,126 billion, with the largest net selling value in PNJ, VIX, and VRE. Conversely, FPT, VIC, and BCM were the stocks with net buying.

▶ Technical perspective: The market surged during the session, at one point approaching VND 1,900; however, profit-taking pressure in the afternoon caused many stocks to reverse and narrow their gains. Nevertheless, the VN-Index successfully recorded a 14-point increase, largely due to the contribution of the VIC-VHM duo. Overall, the market outlook remains positive as the index continues to trade above the MA50 line, supported by a healthy liquidity structure: increasing during upward movements and narrowing during corrective sessions. We believe that intraday fluctuations are necessary as the market continues to move towards new highs. The Securities and Technology sectors attracted significant capital inflows today.

Liquidity Trend: We expect the current "money spillover" effect to continue supporting the upward trend of the VN-Index. Maintaining high liquidity is a crucial foundation supporting the overall market's upward trend.

Industry Rotation: We expect a tactical shift towards leading sectors. Our view leans towards a scenario where capital is withdrawing from overheated stock groups and shifting to undervalued groups/stocks or those that have completed their accumulation phase.

From a statistical perspective, we monitor the percentage of stocks trading above the 50-day moving average (EMA50) as an indicator to identify market bottoms. Historically, the VN-Index usually confirms a bottom when this percentage fluctuates between 30% and 40%. With the current figure above 50%, the data suggests significant growth potential for most stocks.