Vietnam Insight

▶ The index opened the trading session with a gap up of 7.39 points, continuing the upward trend of the previous session. Foreign investors resumed net selling after strong net buying in previous sessions. The market's upward momentum was subject to tug-of-war as the index traded near its historical peak. During today's trading session, state-owned enterprises continued to play a crucial role in supporting the market.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index decreased by 8.49 points (-0.45%), to 1,894.44 points; the HNX-Index increased by 0.47 points (+0.19%), reaching 253.32 points. Market liquidity during the correction showed impressive growth compared to previous sessions, indicating strong demand. Liquidity exceeded the 20-day average and continued to increase, reaching 50.6 trillion VND, corresponding to 1,650 million shares traded. Foreign investors net sold 451 billion VND, with the largest net selling values in VHM, MSN, and VRE. Conversely, VCB, SSI, and FPT were the stocks with net buying.

▶ BID (+2.57%), VCB (+6.91%), and GVR (+2.92%) were the three stocks that put pressure on the market. On the other hand, MBB (-2.30%), TCB (-1.71%), and MCH (-1.68%) were the three stocks that curbed the market's upward momentum today.

▶ Real estate, consumer services, and non-essential trade were the sectors that had the most negative impact on the market today. Typical examples include VIC, VPL, and MWG.

▶ Technical perspective: The VN-Index recorded a slight correction today, mainly pressured by the weakness of the real estate sector. However, despite the index decline, market sentiment remained quite positive as capital shifted towards the Consumer Goods sector, with notable buying interest in leading stocks such as VNM, SAB, and MSN. In addition, the Oil and Gas sector continued to attract significant investor interest, with liquidity remaining high.

Liquidity Trend: We expect the current "money spillover" effect to continue supporting the upward trend of the VN-Index. Maintaining high liquidity is a crucial foundation supporting the overall market's upward trend.

Industry Rotation: We expect a tactical shift towards leading sectors. Our view leans towards a scenario where capital withdraws from overheated stock groups and moves into undervalued groups/stocks or those that have completed their accumulation phase.

From a statistical perspective, we track the percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day moving average (EMA50) as an indicator to identify market bottoms. Historically, the VN-Index has typically bottomed out when this percentage fluctuates between 30% and 40%. With the current figure at 40%, the data suggests significant upside potential for most stocks.