Vietnam Insight

▶ The VN-Index recorded a gain in the first trading session of the week; however, significant divergence was observed across industry groups. The highlight was VIC and VHM acting as the leading drivers supporting the index, while most industry groups faced correction pressure (these two stocks alone contributed nearly 13 points – equivalent to the VN-Index's entire gain). The market lacked synchronization, with market breadth skewing heavily toward decliners, as the number of losing stocks doubled that of winning stocks. Foreign investors increased net selling, raising the total session's net sell value to over VND 1,800 billion, with VPL alone accounting for VND 1,505 billion. Cash flow remained sluggish amidst a lack of market-wide momentum, with price increases remaining localized within a few individual stocks.

▶ At the close of the trading session, the VN-Index recorded a gain of 12.42 points (+0.71%), closing at 1,753.74 points; the HNX-Index fell by 1.97 points (-0.76%) to reach 258.68 points. Market-wide liquidity was relatively dismal, reaching only VND 23 trillion, corresponding to just over 837 million shares traded. Foreign investors increased net selling with a net value of VND 1,881 billion, with VPL, GMD, and KBC being the most heavily net-sold stocks. Conversely, notable net-bought stocks included SHB, VPB, and HPG…

▶ Technical perspective: The VN-Index started the trading week with an up session, but this gain was not accompanied by sector-wide breadth, reflected by the sharply reduced market breadth (fewer than 30% of stocks gaining), strong net selling by foreign investors, and declining cash flow compared to previous sessions. The Vingroup group continuously attracted cash flow during the session following the VIC stock split. Foreign capital returned to strong net selling. Given the current momentum of Vingroup stocks, we believe the VN-Index will soon approach the 1,800 mark in the coming trading weeks.

In the base-case scenario: The market has recovered positively and surpassed 1,700 (temporarily exiting the 1,600 - 1,700 point sideways channel) with improved liquidity, better market breadth, and the return of foreign capital. We anticipate the market will face some resistance as it approaches the old peak and consolidate around 1,800 before cash flow improves following the conclusion of the Party Congress in early 2026. With a double-digit economic growth target for 2026 and expected market-wide profit growth exceeding 18%, we anticipate the VN-Index could reach the 1,900-2,000 range for the year 2026.

In the negative-case scenario: The downward momentum continues to accelerate with increasing trading volume accompanying the decline, and no bottom-fishing demand emerges around the 1,550 - 1,580 point level. The market may then continue to head towards the 1,500 support zone and lower price levels for testing.

Strategy: Trading-oriented investors can observe the market's reaction around the 1,650 - 1,700 region. If the corrective sessions do not cause the index to fall out of the sideways channel, this could be a good opportunity for these investors to re-disburse capital. Medium- and long-term investors can begin partial disbursement into stock groups with good business results and sufficiently attractive discounts, such as Banking, Financial Services, and Construction Materials…