Vietnam Insight

Highlights:

• Fed rate cut expectations surged to 90%, as the U.S. labor market weakened sharply in November with 32,000 private sector jobs cut.
• Vietnam’s November PMI reached 53.8, slightly below October’s 54.5 but still firmly above the 50-point threshold.
• As of 15 November 2025, Vietnam’s total import–export turnover exceeded USD 801 billion (~VND 21 quadrillion), the highest level ever recorded.
• The SBV raised the OMO lending rate (secured by valuable papers) to 4.5%/year, up from the 4.0% level maintained since September 2025.

Assessment: Over the past week, market liquidity has shown clearer signs of broadening, supported by both domestic and global news flows that helped stabilize sentiment. A notable development is the increase in the OMO rate, reflecting recent liquidity shortages in the interbank market, where overnight rates have surged to 7%. This pressure has spilled over into retail deposit rates, with several banks already preparing to raise deposit rates. We believe the liquidity tightness is localized and seasonal, especially toward year-end when funding needs rise across the economy. However, caution is warranted if overnight rates remain elevated through Q1 2026, it would signal a risk that needs close monitoring.

Technical View: The VN-Index ended the week at 1,741 points (+50.33 points; +2.98%) with low liquidity. The market has shown better signs of cash flow rotation across sectors, and foreign investors recorded net buying of roughly VND 1,000 billion during the week. The real estate group (mainly VIC) continued to sustain upward momentum, but new highlights emerged in the retail and banking sectors. Excluding VIC, the broader market remains largely range-bound and has not yet transitioned into a confirmed uptrend.

Investment Idea: short-term investors may consider deploying capital into groups with strong cash inflows such as retail, industrial parks, and banking. Medium- to long-term investors may continue accumulating banking stocks and real estate names (excluding the VIC group), as many remain attractively valued.