Vietnam Insight

▶ The index opened the session with a gap up 3.64 points after the previous session's increase. Foreign investors continued to have a third consecutive net buying session, reducing the selling pressure on the VN-index with a relatively large net buying value. The increase spread across many industry groups and market liquidity improved compared to previous sessions. The index is approaching the old peak of 1,795. 

▶ At the end of the session, the VN-Index increased by 5.47 points (+0.32%), reaching 1,737.24 points; the HNX-Index increased by 2.64 points (+1.02%), reaching 262.31 points. The liquidity of the whole market in the index's increase session improved, reaching above the 20-session average, reaching VND 28.9 trillion, equivalent to 1,009 million shares traded. Foreign investors bought a strong net of VND 1,043 billion, in which the largest net buying value was MBB, HPG and VIC. On the contrary, VHM, MSN and VIX were typical net selling stocks.

▶ Technical perspective: VN-Index continued to have a positive session with improved market breadth (nearly 60% of stocks increased), strong net buying by foreign investors and slightly improved cash flow in an upward direction. The banking group continued to attract cash flow during the trading session, while stocks that had increased strongly in the last session such as VIC, VHM, VJC and VNM faced profit-taking pressure. Foreigners had a rare net buying week since July 2025. With the current positive signs, we expect the VN-Index to return to test 1,750-1,800 in the coming trading weeks. With only 40% of stocks above MA50, we believe that the recovery momentum still has a lot of room in the coming time.

In the positive case: The market has recovered positively and surpassed 1,700 (temporarily escaping the sideway of 1,600-1,700 points) with improved liquidity, better market breadth and the return of foreign investors. We believe that the market will face some resistance when returning to the old peak and struggling around 1,750-1,7800 before cash flow improves after the end of the Party Congress in early 2026. With the target of double-digit economic growth for 2026 and total market profit growth of more than 18%, we expect the VN-Index to move towards the 1,900-2,000 range for 2026.

In the negative case: The downtrend continues to increase with trading volume gradually increasing in a downward direction, there is no bottom-fishing force around the threshold of 1,550 - 1,580 points. The market may then continue to move towards the support zone of 1,500 and lower price zones for testing.

Strategy: Investors following the trading school can observe the market reaction around the 1,650 - 1,700 range. If the correction sessions do not cause the index to fall out of the sideway channel, this could be a good opportunity for investors following this school to disburse again. Investors following the medium and long-term investment school can start disbursing in part in groups of stocks with good business results and attractive enough discounts such as banking, finance, construction materials... Based on historical data, the number of stocks traded above MA50 around 30-40% often shows that this is the bottom of the market, currently this index is at (39% - implying that many stocks have deep discounts).