Vietnam Insight

▶ The index opened the session with a gap up 8.84 points after the previous session's increase. Foreign investors continued to have a second consecutive net buying session, reducing selling pressure on the VN-index. The increase spread across many industry groups and market liquidity improved compared to previous sessions. 

▶ At the end of the session, the VN-Index increased by 14.71 points (+0.86%), reaching 1,731.77 points; the HNX-Index increased by 0.80 points (+0.31%), reaching 259.67 points. The liquidity of the whole market in the session increased by the index, reaching above the average level of 20 sessions, reaching 30.4 trillion VND, equivalent to 916 million shares traded. Foreign investors strongly bought 3,798 billion VND, in which the largest net selling value was VPL, MBB and VPB. On the contrary, VIC, VCB and FPT were the typical net selling stocks.

▶ Technical perspective: The recovery momentum spread instead of focusing on just a few stocks (such as VIC, VRE, VHM), liquidity improved slightly and focused on banking and retail groups during the session. Foreigners had a rare week of net buying since July 2025. With the current positive signs, we expect the VN-Index to return to test 1,750-1,800 in the coming trading weeks.

In the positive case: The market has recovered positively and surpassed 1,700 (temporarily escaping the sideway of 1,600-1,700 points) with improved liquidity, better market breadth and the return of foreign investors. We believe that the market will face some resistance when returning to the old peak and struggling around 1,750-1,7800 before the cash flow improves after the Party Congress in early 2026 ends. With the target of double-digit economic growth for 2026 and the overall market profit growth of more than 18%, we expect the VN-Index to move towards the 1,900-2,000 range for 2026.

In the negative case: The downtrend continues to increase with trading volume gradually increasing in a downward direction, there is no bottom-fishing force around the threshold of 1,550 - 1,580 points. The market can then continue to move towards the support zone of 1,500 and lower price zones for testing.

Strategy: Investors following the trading school can observe the market reaction around the 1,650 - 1,700 range. If the correction sessions do not cause the index to fall out of the sideway channel, this could be a good opportunity for investors following this school to disburse again. Investors following the medium and long-term investment school can start to disburse part of their investment in groups of stocks with good business results and attractive enough discounts such as banking, finance, construction materials, etc. Based on historical data, the number of stocks traded on MA50 around 30-40% often shows that this is the bottom of the market, currently this index is at (39% - implying that many stocks have deep discounts).