Vietnam Insight

▶ VN-Index increased slightly on Thursday in an effort to maintain the recovery wave. The sectors developed in different directions, while the VIC-VHM group increased strongly to support the index, many other large-cap stocks such as HPG, MWG, and the banking group moved in the opposite path. At the end of the session, although the market closed with an increase, red color covered most of the sectors. Foreigners reversed to net buy in a session featured by depleted liquidity.

▶ At the end of the trading session, the VN-Index recorded an increase of 6.99 points (+0.42%), closing at 1,655.99 points; the HNX-Index decreased slightly by 0.8 points (-0.3%), reaching 264.23 points. Market liquidity was extremely gloomy, reaching only 21 trillion VND, equivalent to just over 726 million shares being traded. Foreign investors reversed to net-buying position with a net value of VND 293 billion, in which the stocks with the strongest net-buying value were VPB, SSI and VIC. On the other hand, VCI, MWG and MBB were strongly sold by this investor group. 

▶ Technical perspective: VN-Index increased slightly, mainly focusing on some Vin-group related stocks. Other stocks faced slight correction pressure throughout the session, liquidity remained low, spread was not large and the positive point was that foreign investors reversed to net buy strongly at the end of the session. The market structure generally remained in a sideways state, with the bottom being higher than the previous bottom, high transaction value in recovery sessions and low in correction sessions. This development needs to continue in the following sessions if we expect VN-Index to maintain the recovery trend.

In the base case: The market is showing signs of balance in the 1,600 point area, with liquidity declining sharply across the market and institutional cash flow starting to spread to industry groups with good growth prospects. We believe that VN-Index will trade in a sideways trend (1,600-1,700) for the rest of 2025, and the cash flow is expected to be stronger after the Party Congress in early 2026.

In the negative case: The downtrend continues to increase with trading volume gradually increasing in a downward direction, and there is no bottom-fishing force around the threshold of 1,550-1,580 points. The market may then continue to move towards the support zone of 1,500 and lower price zones for testing.

Strategy: Investors following the trading style can observe the market reaction around the 1,650-1,700 area. If the correction sessions do not cause the index to fall out of the sideways channel (currently showing the above signals), this could be a good opportunity for investors following this style to disburse again. Investors with medium and long-term investment styles can start to disburse part of their investment in stock groups with good business results and attractive discounts such as banking, finance, construction materials, …