Vietnam Insight

▶ The index opened the session with a gap up 5.01 points after the previous recovery session. Domestic buying power, although not strong, was relatively stable despite the prolonged selling momentum of foreign investors. Market liquidity recovered slightly when the index returned to the important resistance level of MA50 and the increase spread when it was not supported by pillar stocks such as Vingroup. 

▶ At the end of the session, the VN-Index increased by 18.96 points (+1.16%), reaching 1,654.42 points; the HNX-Index increased by 1.08 points (+0.40%), reaching 268.69 points. Market liquidity continued to remain low, lower than the 20-session average, at VND 24.1 trillion, equivalent to 889 million shares traded. Foreign investors sold strongly again, with a net value of VND 911 billion, of which the largest net selling value belonged to STB, VHM and VRE. On the contrary, HPG, FPT and KDH were the typical net buying stocks.

▶ Technical perspective: VN-Index experienced two sessions (T+2.5) returning from bottom-fishing sessions but there was almost no strong selling pressure during the session. The index maintained its upward momentum throughout the session and closed at the highest point with a spread across many industry groups. Up to now, the buyers are still cautious, while the sellers have not shown any signs of profit-taking at this point. The main trend will still be sideways at 1,600-1,700 points in the remaining 2025. After failing to completely penetrate the lower limit of 1,600 points, we expect the index to retest around the 1,700 area (corresponding to the upper limit of the sideway border). We believe that around this area, the sellers will reappear. In the above case, if the market maintains its structure with the principle of higher bottoms than the previous bottoms, this will be a positive signal for investors who are standing outside to observe. 

In the positive case: The market is showing signs of early balance at the 1,600 point area, with liquidity declining sharply across the market and institutional cash flow starting to spread to industry groups with good growth prospects. We believe that the VN-Index will trade in a sideways trend (1600-1700) for the rest of 2025, cash flow is expected to be stronger after the Party Congress in early 2026.

In the negative case: The downtrend continues to increase with trading volume gradually increasing in a downward direction, with no bottom-fishing force appearing around the 1,550-1,580 point threshold. The market may then continue to move towards the 1,500 support zone and lower price zones for testing.

Strategy: Investors following the trading school can observe the market reaction around the 1,650-1,700 range. If the correction sessions do not cause the index to fall out of the sideway channel, this could be a good opportunity for investors following this school to disburse again. Investors following the medium and long-term investment school can start disbursing part of their investment in groups of stocks with good business results and attractive enough discounts such as banking, finance, construction materials, etc.