Vietnam Insight

▶ VN-Index continued its strong increase on Wednesday with a session of moderate trading and closed around the reference price. There was a high differentiation between industry groups. Although many bank stocks or Vingroup stocks decreased, there were still industry groups that moved in the opposite direction to stop the index from falling deep, typically chemicals, fertilizers, oil and gas, industrial zones... Liquidity continued to "silence" in the context of investors hesitating between buying and selling. Foreign investors widened their selling momentum compared to yesterday's session, with a net selling value of nearly 1,000 billion VND.

▶ At the end of the trading session, the VN-Index recorded a decrease of 0.42 points (-0.03%), closing at 1,631.44 points; HNX-Index increased by 1.5 points (+0.57%), reaching 266.29 points. Market liquidity remained flat at a low level, reaching VND24.6 trillion, equivalent to just over 823 million shares traded. Foreign investors narrowed their selling momentum with a net value of VND 969 billion, in which the largest selling value was concentrated in STB, VCI and VIX.

▶ Technical perspective: After a strong recovery session, VN-Index has temporarily stopped around 1,631 points. Liquidity did not increase sharply in the correction session, the small spread shows that selling pressure is relatively weak while buyers are also waiting to assess the market reaction. These are common developments when the market recovers from the bottom, T+2.5 stocks bought in 2 recovery sessions will be returned to investors' accounts on Friday afternoon and next Monday afternoon. If selling pressure is not strong, this will reinforce the view that the market has found a balance point.

In the base case: The market is showing signs of early balance at the 1,600 point area, with liquidity declining sharply across the market and institutional cash flow starting to spread to industry groups with good growth prospects. We believe that VN-Index will trade in a sideways trend (1,600 - 1,700) for the rest of 2025, and cash flow is expected to be stronger after the Party Congress in January 2026.

In the negative case: The downtrend continues to increase with trading volume gradually increasing in a downward direction, there is no bottom-fishing force around the threshold of 1,550 - 1,580 points. The market may then continue to move towards the support zone of 1,500 and lower price zones for testing.

Strategy: Investors following the trading style should limit transactions, waiting for the market to show signs of demand returning. Investors following the medium and long-term investment style can start to disburse part of the investment in groups of stocks with good business results and attractive discounts such as banking, finance, construction materials, etc.