Company Insight

Hoa Phat Group (HPG), a leading steel producer in Vietnam, achieved 65% of its 2025 revenue target and 78% of its NPAT plan in 9M/2025. Entering 2026, HPG is well-positioned to benefit from favorable internal and external conditions. Based on P/E and DCF valuations, we update our target price to VND 34,100.

In Q3/2025, HPG recorded net revenue of VND 36,407 billion (+1% QoQ, +7% YoY) and net profit of VND 3,988 billion (-6% QoQ, +32% YoY). HRC sales rose to 1.27 million tons (+7.7% QoQ, +71.2% YoY) on protectionist support and added DQ2 output, while construction steel dropped to 1.06 million tons (-16.8% QoQ, -3.0% YoY) due to rainy-season demand weakness. Gross margin was 16.7% (-1.7ppt QoQ, +2.8ppt YoY), lower than Q2 as construction steel prices fell 3–4%, while HRC stayed flat.

We raise HPG’s 2025 steel sales forecast to 11.3 million tons (+33% YoY), driven by added HRC output from Dung Quat 2 Phase 2 in Q4/2025. Revenue and net profit are estimated at VND 166,795 billion (+20% YoY) and VND 16,034 billion (+33% YoY). For 2026, revenue is projected at VND 215,904 billion (+29% YoY) and net profit at VND 23,465 billion (+46% YoY), supported by recovering housing and infrastructure demand, full-year DQ2 Phase 2 contribution, and steel price recovery from China’s supply tightening and anti-dumping policies. China’s steel supply and inventories fell in Q2–Q3/2025, while housing prices narrowed their decline in September 2025.