Company Insight

Maintain BUY rating, target price at 71,600 VND

Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company (Vinamilk, HOSE: VNM) is the dairy company with the leading market share in Vietnam with the largest distribution system and dairy cow herd. VNM has the leading market share in most segments with a healthy asset structure and a consistent dividend payment policy. Based on the FCFF and P/E methods, we update our valuation and recommend BUY for VNM with a target price of VND 71,600, equivalent to an expected return of 23.4%.

Update business results for Q3 and 9 months/2025

In Q3/2025, VNM recorded a new peak in consolidated net revenue of VND 16,953 billion (+9.1% YoY), with both domestic and overseas markets recording growth. However, Q3 net profit reached VND 2,511 billion, up only 4.5% YoY due to the impact of losses from associates incurred in the quarter related to the provision for investment in Miraka in New Zealand.

The domestic market continued to recover well with revenue growing 4.4% YoY, contributed by e-commerce, new products and effective marketing campaigns. Exports remained the main driver of growth in overseas regions with Q4 revenue increasing 46.8%, key markets in Asia and Africa increased strongly, especially the Cambodian market. The operations of overseas subsidiaries also grew again compared to the same period. 

Thus, in the first 9 months, VNM recorded revenue of VND 46,613 billion (+0.7% YoY) and net profit of VND 6,587 billion (-9.8% YoY). VNM has maintained a good recovery momentum for two consecutive quarters after a sharp decline in Q1 due to the impact of restructuring. However, net profit is still decreasing compared to the same period due to poor results in Q1.