Company Insight

After a 19% decline from its peak, the correction occurred amid the successful TCBS IPO and the market upgrade that met investors' expectations. With the current discount, TCB shares already offer sufficient upside for investment, with a target price of 42,600 VND/share – based on the Residual Income (RI) method and the P/B comparable method.

TCB's credit growth in 9M/2025 reached 16.8% Ytd (short-term loans increased by 36%), split evenly between individual and corporate customers.

TCB's NPL ratio at the end of Q3/2025 continued to improve and stabilized at 1.16%. Credit cost significantly decreased from 0.8% at the end of Q4/2024 to 0.6% at the end of Q3/2025. PBT reached 23,385 billion VND (+2.4% YoY), completing 75% of the annual profit plan.

We maintain the assumptions from our latest report: TCB is forecasted to achieve a credit growth rate of 19-20% for 2025-2026. NIM is expected to stabilize around 3.8% for 2025-2026 (a decrease compared to the previous forecast of approximately 4%). The NPL ratio is expected to be 1.2% and credit cost below 1% for 2025. Profit before tax for 2025 is expected to reach 30,593 billion VND (+11% YoY). Profit for 2026 is expected to reach VND 36,809 billion (+20.3% YoY). We expect that over the next two years, 2026-2028, TCB may realize the upside potential for NIM from the project portfolio applying Flexible Pricing Program. However, we have not yet quantified this increase in the valuation model due to insufficient detailed information.