Company Insight

VCB's NIM (TTM) at the end of Q3/2025 slightly decreased to 2.7% in the context of a modest increase in capital costs and high competition. CIR remained stable at 33%.

Interest income in 9M/2025 reached VND42,505 billion (+2.3% YoY). Non-interest income in 9M/2025 grew 14.8% YoY, coming from foreign exchange segment, investment securities trading portfolio and other income from bad debt settlement. Fee income decreased slightly as VCB already completed recording upfront fees from insurance in 2024.

Profit before tax in 9M/2025 reached VND33,133 billion (+5% YoY).

Key assumptions for VCB's 2025-2026: Credit growth reaches 16% for the 2025-2026 period; NIM is adjusted down to 2.6-2.7%; NPL ratio in 2025 and 2026 is around 1.0%; credit risk cost/total credit in 2025-2026 is at 0.3-0.4%, PBT in 2025 and 2026 reaches growth rates of 7.6% YoY and 12.3% YoY, respectively.

Using the residual income (RI) method and the comparison method based on the P/B index, we update the target price for VCB for 2026 at VND 72,000.