Macro/ Strategy

Market Upgrade

On 10 August 2025, FSTE Russell upgraded the Vietnamese stock market from Frontier market to Secondary emerging market status. The upgrade is not only a technical recognition but also shows the reform efforts in policy to integrate the Vietnamese market with the global market.

Aiming further goals

Decision 2014/QD-TTg issued in September 2025 sets the target for the Vietnamese market to be upgraded by FTSE Russell in 2025. In addition, the decision also sets the target of upgrading from a frontier market to an emerging market according to MSCI's classification. Since the size of assets under management (AUM) tracking MSCI's indices is larger than the AUM tracking after FTSE Russell's indices, if upgraded by MSCI, the Vietnamese market will attract larger capital flows than from the FTSE Russell upgrade.

We see similarities in MSCI's assessment criteria between the Vietnamese market and China and India, which are classified as Emerging Markets. Therefore, according to the roadmap set out to improve the criteria that need to be classified according to Circular 68/TT-BTC and Decree 245/2025/ND-CP, Vietnam may be considered for MSCI reclassification in 2029-2030.

2025 Stock Market Outlook

The VN-Index has witnessed one of its most remarkable rallies, reaching the milestone of 1,700 points. Upgrading to Secondary Emerging Market status by FTSE serves as a major catalyst for the market in late 2025, supporting the continued upward momentum of the index. 

We project a base-case scenario for the VN-Index in the 1,700–1,800 point range, corresponding to a P/E ratio of around 14–15x, backed by several positive factors such as: upbeat investor sentiment following the upgrade, the solid fundamentals of the domestic economy, and the sustained earnings growth momentum of listed companies.