Macro/ Strategy

Building on the recovery momentum from the final quarter of 2023, Vietnam’s economy closed 2024 with remarkable achievements, exceeding most of the socio-economic targets set by the National Assembly. Key policy changes were implemented across critical economic sectors, such as real estate, electricity, and public investment,… aimed at removing obstacles and "unlocking" growth drivers for the economy.

Looking ahead to 2025, the global economic landscape presents numerous challenges and uncertainties. However, the Government has designated 2025 as a pivotal year for acceleration and breakthroughs, striving to achieve a GDP growth rate exceeding 8% (surpassing the National Assembly's target). This ambitious goal requires not only revitalizing traditional growth drivers (investment, consumption, and exports) but also fostering innovation and advancing new growth pillars, including digital transformation, green economy, and high technology.

Macroeconomic outlook

To achieve the ambitious economic growth target in 2025, the economy will leverage its internal strengths (domestic consumption and investment), supported by fiscal policies and legal reforms. Meanwhile, with inflation expected to rise, monetary policy will face constraints, and exchange rate pressures are likely to persist, at least through the first half of 2025, amid unpredictable risks under a potential Trump 2.0 administration. For the full year 2025, we project GDP growth could reach 7%, inflation could be controlled below 4%, and the VND may depreciate further by 2-3%.

Stock market outlook

We are confident that the stock market will be driven by the economy's internal strength, supported by an estimated 20% profit growth of listed companies in 2025. This growth could sustain the VNIndex within the 1,200–1,285 range in a bearish scenario and toward its previous peak of 1,500 in a base-case scenario.

Potential Sectors

The Investment Outlook 2025 covers some key sectors such as Banking, Real Estate, Industrial Real Estate, Steel, Electricity, Logistics, Food & Beverage, Retail, and Technology. We believe these sectors stand to benefit significantly from the promotion of domestic investment and consumption. Along with Financial Services, these are also the sectors likely to attract substantial foreign capital inflows if the market is upgraded, given their large market capitalization and available room after a prolonged period of foreigners' net selling.