[VIB/HOLD/ TP: VND 24,600, +14.4%] - When capital cost is not a strength
05/11/2024

Summary

- By the end of Q3/2024, VIB's credit growth reached nearly 12% YTD, of which in Q3/2024 alone, VIB grew by 7% YTD. The card segment continued to show outstanding growth in VIB's loan portfolio. The regulation on reducing registration tax by 50% helped VIB's auto loan segment grow positive again (returning to the top 1 in auto loan market share in Q3/2024, according to VAMA). Meanwhile, the mortgage segment remained almost flat in 9M/2024. NIM decreased more deeply than we expected, at the end of Q3/2024, VIB's NIM (TTM) decreased to 4% (from 4.7% at the end of Q4/2023). VIB's net interest income in 9M/2024 reached VND 12,041 billion (-7.6% YoY).

- Non-interest income in 9M/2024 decreased slightly, fee income continued to face difficulties. VIB's positive point came from other income (mostly from debt collection activities, risk compensation) when it increased by more than 67% over the same period.

- Regarding asset quality, VIB's NPL continued to increase to 3.85% (from 3.1% at the end of Q4/2023). However, we believe that VIB's NPL is approaching its peak when the bank's group 2 debt maintained a continuous downward trend for 4 consecutive quarters. Group 2 debt/total outstanding loans of VIB from a peak of 6.45% at the end of Q3/2023 has decreased sharply to 3.65% at the end of Q3/2024, compared to an average of 2.6% in the period 2020-2022. VIB's provision expenses in 9M/2024 reached VND5,460 billion (+12.7% YoY).

- VIB's pre-tax profit in 9M/2024 reached VND6,603 billion (-21% YoY), completing 55% of the 2024 target plan.

- Credit growth recovered as we expected, but VIB had to accept a shrinkage in NIM for 2024. We expect VIB's credit in 2024 to reach 18% (using up the credit growth limit), and maintain this 18% growth momentum in 2025. NIM bottomed out at the end of 2024 before recovering slightly in 2025. NPL in 2024 and 2025 reached 3.5% and 3.3%. We revised VIB's pre-tax profit in 2024 down to VND8,414 billion (-21.4% YoY) and recovered to VND11,686 billion (+38.9% YoY) for 2025.

Company
VIB-Vietnam International Commercial Joint Stock Bank
Category
Update
Author
Phuong Nguyen
Details

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