Vietnam Insight

Highlights:

• The president of the Atlanta Fed branch said that the Fed should make only one cut this year - significantly less than the three cuts predicted by Fed officials at the March meeting.
• From the beginning of April until now, the State Bank has net absorbed money through T-bill bidding. The exchange rate decreased slightly in the context of the average VND interbank interest rate increasing sharply from April 1 to present.
• Vietnam's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) fell below the 50 point threshold in March, with a result of 49.9 points after reaching 50.4 points in February. This result signaled the end of the period. period of improving business conditions lasting two months in early 2024.

Assessment: In the context of inflation in the US market continuing to remain at a high level, the Chairman of the Atlanta Fed branch expressed his opinion on rescheduling the timing of interest rate cuts. This has had a negative impact on the global stock market. The USD/VND exchange rate had a strong increase at the beginning of the week then gradually stabilized at the end of the week. In general, the market is experiencing a lot of volatility due to unclear information about the prospect of cutting interest rates from the FED, concerns about inflation as oil prices are rising again and the increasing of exchange rates.

Technical view: On the weekly chart, VNINDEX closed at 1,255 (-28.98 points, -2.26%) with liquidity continuing to remain high. The market has officially broken the support zone of 1,270 - 1,280 and challenged the medium-term uptrend. Technical indicators also show increased market risks and show that a downtrend is forming.

Investment Ideas: Investors should take risk management measures and increase cash holdings. Avoid chasing/fishing for the bottom of stocks when the market is in the process of adjusting.

• Movement of cash flows and capital flows
• Top stocks worth noting
• Macro data