Vietnam Insight

Highlights:

• The US PPI index increased by 0.6% over the previous month, much higher than the forecast of a 0.3% increase by experts, and also exceeded the 0.3% level in January. Compared to the same period, the overall PPI increased by 1.6%, which is the strongest gain since September 2023.
• During the session on September 18, the USD selling rate at commercial banks continued to increase. The exchange rate at Vietcombank surpassed the mark of 24,900 VND/USD, breaking the record recorded in October 2022. 
• In the past 4 sessions (from March 11 to March 14), the State Bank issued bills and net withdrew nearly VND 60,000 billion.

Assetment: The rising US PPI index has made the Fed more cautious in cutting interest rates. This causes the USD to increase, leading to domestic banks adjusting exchange rates, and the government also makes moves to issue bills to maintain a stable exchange rate. This caused the market to increase risk as foreign investors continuously sold over the past week.

Technical view: On the weekly chart, VNINDEX closed at 1,263 (+16.43 points, +1.32%) with the liquidity continuing to remain high. VNINDEX had strong fluctuations when the index was maintained close to the nearest resistance zone. In general, the market still maintains an upward trend in the medium term. However, the RSI index is in the overbought zone combined with the market being near the resistance zone of 1,270 - 1,280, showing potential risks when the market has had a long series of increases in recent times.

Investment Ideas: Investors should remain cautious when the market is in the resistance zone and subject to many large fluctuations. Investors prioritize risk management and take profits on stocks that have met expectations.

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