Vietnam Insight

Highlights:

In a speech infront of the US Senate Banking Committee, the Fed emphasized: "We are waiting to be more certain that inflation is moving towards a sustainable 2%. When we are sure of that - which may not be long - interest rates will start to be reduced."

On March 4, the General Department of Customs announced that Vietnam's exports in February 2024 reached an estimated 24.82 billion USD, down 28.1% compared to the previous month.

Assetment: Good macro news has been reflected in the price, causing the current market to face strong selling pressure. Specifically, in the past week, there were signs of money flowing out of the banking group and flowing into other large-cap stocks (food and beverage groups such as MSN, SAB); and foreign investors continued to net sell this week. Therefore, it is recommended that investors observe and be ready to sell stocks when they violate support levels. It is necessary to lower margin and maintain a safe status for the account.

Technical view: On the weekly chart, VNINDEX closed at 1,247 (-10.9 points, -0.87%). The market's performance last week was in line with our scenario, when after every 9-10 sessions of increasing points, there will be 1 session decreasing by about 15 points, pulling the index close to the EMA 20 zone. Since the beginning of the year, the main trend of the market is still up, so besides the 3 times it has decreased by more than 15 points since the beginning of 2024, we expect VNINDEX to have another decrease of about 30 points to the 1212 zone to test. The reaction in this area will be a decisive factor for the investment strategy in the near future.

Investment Ideas: When the market recovers, large-cap stocks that have not increased too much such as GAS VNM are expected to benefit. In addition, the real estate group NLG, KDH, VHM, KBC, ... are also expected to receive cash flow in the coming period.

• Movement of cash flows and capital flows
• Top stocks worth noting
• Macro data