[TCB/BUY/TP: VND 50,340] - Get back on track


TCB's non-performing loan (NPL) at the end of Q4/2023 decreased by about 14.9% compared to Q3/2023, after increasing continuously in 3 consecutive quarters in 2023. The NPL ratio at the end of 2023 dropped to around 1.19%, down from 1.4% at Q3/2023. TCB has increased provision expenses significantly in Q4/2023, recording VND 1,634 billion in this quarter (+136% yoy). TCB's pre-tax profit for the whole year 2023 reached 22,888 billion VND (-10.5% yoy), exceeding the yearly profit plan of 22,000 billion VND. TCB expects to extract 20% of net profit for cash dividend policy for the upcoming years. We forecast that TCB's EBT in 2024 reaches 29,641 billion VND (+29.5% yoy). With the residual income (RI) method and comparison method based on the P/B index, we update the target price for TCB for the whole year 2024 at 50,340 VND, with potential upside at 43.8%.

TCB-Vietnam Technological and Commercial Joint Stock Bank
Phuong Nguyen

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