Macro/ Strategy

The Vietnamese stock market (VNINDEX) has reversed its upward trend after reaching the 1250 level and is currently consolidating at the 1100 point level. Globally, the Federal Reserve System (FED) has kept interest rates unchanged as the October inflation index shows signs of cooling. In Vietnam, GDP in Q3/2023 increased by 5.33% and is estimated to grow by 5% for the whole year 2023. The CPI index for 9M/2023 increased by 3.16% YoY, still below the government's target. Notably, EVN (Vietnam Electricity) decided on November 9, 2023 to increase the  electricity selling price in 2023 to 2,006 VND/kWh (+4.5%); this will have a positive impact on the electricity value chain in general. In addition, the Power Development Plan VIII emphasizes the goal of focusing on the development of wind power and LNG power from 2023 to 2030.

The Going Green portfolio has a rate of return of +23.35% YTD. Among them, the stocks with the strongest increase include: CNG (+57.9% YTD), TV2 (+67% YTD), and PC1 (+45.4% YTD). As of September 30, 2023, the total revenue and net profit of the Going Green investment portfolio decreased by -15% YoY and -35% YoY, respectively. For the first 9M/2023, total revenue decreased by -11% YoY and net profit decreased by -27% YoY. The reason is that hydropower production decline significantly due to unfavorable hydrological conditions. Meanwhile, the thermal power group faced challenges such as maintenance of many power plants, a sharp decline in the electricity price on the competitive electricity market, a severe gas shortage, and a decrease in the workload of the electrical construction group.

In 2024, national electricity consumption is expected to continue to grow at 9%. The thermal power group (POW, NT2) is expected to generate more electricity as the gas shortage has been partially improved and many power plants have completed major maintenance. The output of the renewable energy group is also expected to improve as the transition price mechanism has and is supporting many power plants that started operating from 2H2023. In addition, the electrical construction group such as PC1 and TV2 will also benefit in 2024.