Macroeconomic outlook: The global economic recovery remains slow and divergent due to cyclical effects of monetary tightening policy to curb inflation, escalating war and also extreme weather events. In Vietnam, thanks to well control of inflation, policy priorities of growth are expected to promote the economic recovery at a faster rate, estimated by 5% in 2023 and increase to 6% in 2024 driven by investment, consumption and export.
Stock market outlook: Along with the steady recovery of the economy, Vietnam stock market is getting ready to accelerate. VNIndex is forecast to increase by 15% - 25% in 2024 backed by earning growth of listed companies that showed signs of bottoming out in Q4.2022 and estimated to increase by 4%/15% in 2023/2024, respectively. KRX system into operation, MSCI emerging market upgrade bring even greater expectations.
Investment themes: In an economic expansion cycle, most of industries will return positive growth. Of which, we focus on benefiting sectors from promoting investment and consumption; manufacturing and export prosper again; and especially, real estate sector starts a new cycle and prospect of banking sector becomes clearer.
Key issues that need to pay attention in 2024: Divergent monetary policies put pressure on exchange rates; bad debts swell and damage banking system; remained high inflation requires central banks to maintain high interest rates longer; global economic recession; escalating war; and surprises from the elections in US and some other countries.
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