Macro/ Strategy

Inflation rebounds on fuel

Headline CPI accelerated to 4.89% YoY in August 2026, rebounding from July's 4.45% and June's 4.69%, while core inflation eased slightly, from 4.63% to 4.55%. We can see that the acceleration is concentrated outside the core basket. Transport (+8.02% YoY) contributed 0.78pp to the headline, a 0.97pp swing from a year-earlier -0.19pp that alone explains roughly 60% of the 1.65pp rise in headline inflation over the past twelve months.

Production and consumption both firm as PMI extends its run

Vietnam's PMI rose to 53.3 in August from 52.9 in July, a 14th consecutive month above the neutral 50 threshold and the strongest improvement in conditions since February thanks to new orders and output both accelerated.Consumption kept pace: retail sales rose 14.95% YoY (13.3% in 8M2026, 7.6% real), while foreign arrivals reached 1.99 million in August (+18.4% YoY).

Monthly trade deficit narrows sharply

August exports rose 3.2% MoM to USD 54.79bn (+26.0% YoY) while imports fell 3.1% MoM to USD 54.91bn (+37.9% YoY), narrowing the monthly trade deficit to just USD 0.12bn from USD 3.41bn in July. It was the smallest monthly gap since March. Cumulative 8M2026 trade of USD 770.14bn is nonetheless the highest eight-month total on record (+28.7% YoY), and the resulting 8M2026 deficit of USD 20.46bn reverses the USD 14.02bn surplus of 8M2025, as import growth (+35.3%) has outpaced export growth (+22.4%) in every month this year. 

Currency firms as the money-market curve steepens

The free-market USD/VND rate fell to 25,860 by end-August from 26,250 at end-July, a 1.5% VND appreciation, and has strengthened a cumulative 3.3% since end-2025's 26,750 close, being consistent with the broader dollar softness.