Vietnam Insight

▶ Selling pressure intensified during Monday’s trading session, causing the index to correct sharply in the afternoon. At one point, the VN-Index fell nearly 20 points and approached the 1,776 level. However, bargain-hunting demand emerged at lower price levels, helping the index recover toward the end of the session and close down only 6.98 points after the ATC session. Overall, the highlight of the day was the Oil & Gas sector, as global oil prices surged amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Meanwhile, stocks within the Gelex ecosystem declined sharply as the market reacted to prosecution-related news concerning violations at EVNNPT. The sell-off in this group also pushed overall market liquidity above the 20-session average. On a positive note, foreign investors expanded their net buying position, focusing primarily on banking stocks.

▶ At the close, the VN-Index fell 6.98 points (-0.39%) to 1,788.23, while the HNX-Index lost 0.74 points (-0.27%) to 271.94. Total trading value across the three exchanges reached VND 20.6 trillion, equivalent to approximately 885 million shares traded. Foreign investors were strong net buyers with a net buying value of VND 821 billion, mainly in banking stocks such as VPB, MBB, and TCB. On the other hand, VNM, VIC, and VCI were among the most heavily net-sold stocks.

▶ Technical View: The VN-Index experienced significant volatility with high liquidity, reflecting the impact of both domestic and international news flows. Nevertheless, the market’s long-term structure remains range-bound. Several stocks that declined sharply in the morning session, such as SSI, FRT, and VCI, attracted strong bottom-fishing demand in the afternoon.

In the coming sessions, the market is likely to react strongly around the 50-day moving average (MA50), corresponding to the 1,800-point level, which represents a fairly balanced area within the broader trading range of 1,650–1,900 points. Under a positive scenario, if liquidity improves, cash flow broadens across sectors, and stronger consensus emerges among industry groups, this would be an important signal that the market structure has shifted from a sideways trend to an upward trend.

In the positive medium-term case: In an optimistic scenario, easing inflationary pressures would create room for more flexible monetary policy, thereby supporting market valuations. Companies maintaining solid profit growth and trading at reasonable valuations – despite persistently high domestic interest rates – may present attractive investment opportunities for the medium to long term. Under this scenario, the VN-Index is expected to target the 2,000–2,100 point range in the second half of 2026. 

In the base medium-term case: Conversely, if net selling pressure from foreign investors persists and domestic interest rates continue to rise – thereby dampening market liquidity – the VN-Index may lack fresh, positive capital inflows. It would likely trade sideways within the 1,750–1,850 point range during the second half of 2026. Weakness in the VIC and VHM stock groups could cause the VN-Index to retest the lower bound of the previous sideways range – around the 1,580–1,600 point level. Additionally, renewed geopolitical tensions between Iran and the US, combined with the likelihood of the Fed maintaining high interest rates, could reinforce this negative scenario by pressuring exchange rates and foreign capital flows into emerging markets like Vietnam.

Strategy: Investors should remain patient and wait for periods of volatility and pullbacks accompanied by low trading volume to identify suitable entry points. The preferred strategy is to focus on stocks that have not risen significantly relative to the broader market but possess solid business fundamentals, positive growth prospects, and reasonable valuations. This approach helps reduce the risk of chasing stocks that have already experienced substantial gains. In addition, investors should avoid excessive optimism during strong market rallies and refrain from increasing portfolio exposure too aggressively at elevated price levels. Maintaining an appropriate cash allocation will allow investors to deploy capital effectively during market corrections while enhancing overall risk management capabilities.