Vietnam Insight

The market is pricing in an approximately 86% probability of a Fed rate hike on Wednesday. US stock futures fell on Monday amid rising concerns over the safety of artificial intelligence development, while investors turned their attention to the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting this week. On Saturday, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said AI companies should slow the pace of development for their most advanced models due to safety risks, while pledging to implement additional safeguards at the company. Meanwhile, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said the ChatGPT developer does not plan to go public this year. On the monetary policy front, markets are pricing in an approximately 86% probability of a Fed rate hike on Wednesday, as elevated energy prices add to inflationary pressures. Oil prices climbed further on Monday after Saudi Arabia shut a key pipeline used to bypass the Strait of Hormuz following drone attacks. Rallying oil prices weighed on major US averages last week, with the Dow falling 1.57%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite declined 0.8% and 0.66%, respectively.

Sideways trading within a wide range, return to the 1,800 area. The VN-Index ended the session at 1,795.21 points (-34.02 points, -1.86%), with trading volume below the 20-session average. There were 51 gainers and 284 decliners. BSR, SSB, and BVH were the top positive contributors, while VIC, VHM, and GAS weighed on the index. Foreign investors posted VND 867 billion in net selling, mainly in STB, VPB, and MBB.

Trading Strategy: Investors should remain patient and wait for market pullbacks or short-term volatility on relatively low trading liquidity to identify more attractive entry points. The preferred strategy is to focus on stocks that have yet to rally significantly relative to the broader market, but have solid business fundamentals, positive growth prospects, and reasonable valuations. This approach can help mitigate the risk of chasing stocks that have already experienced sharp rallies. Meanwhile, investors should avoid excessive optimism when the market moves up strongly and refrain from increasing their exposure too aggressively at elevated price levels. Maintaining an appropriate cash position will provide greater flexibility to deploy capital during market corrections while allowing investors to better manage downside risks.

 Current portfolio: MBB, VRE, NVL; Watchlist: HPG, REE, BVH, GAS and securities stock (HCM, SSI, VCI…)