Vietnam Insight

▶ During Thursday's trading session, the market fluctuated steadily around the 1,820-point level. Record-low liquidity confirmed weakening selling pressure, while foreign investors sent a positive signal by reversing to net buying. Overall, the market was supported by several blue-chip stocks such as VHM, FPT, and VCB. Meanwhile, most other stocks recorded only marginal movements. In general, the index remains in an accumulation phase within the 1,800-1,850 range and requires an improvement in cash flow to break out toward higher levels.

▶ At the close, the VN-Index gained 2.11 points (+0.12%) to finish at 1,829.23 points, while the HNX-Index fell 1.11 points (-0.40%) to 278.37 points. Total trading value across the three exchanges reached VND 14.5 trillion, equivalent to approximately 542 million shares traded. Foreign investors reversed to a net buying position of VND 369 billion, with notable purchases in VIC, FPT, and SBT. On the other hand, the most heavily net-sold stocks included VHM, CTG, and HDB.

▶ Technical perspective: The VN-Index continues to maintain a mixed and range-bound movement as capital flows rotate among different sectors without forming a clear consensus. This development makes the market relatively challenging, as the upward trend is not yet strong enough to create broad-based momentum, while selling pressure remains insufficient to trigger a new correction. On the positive side, buying demand continues to emerge at lower price levels, helping the VN-Index maintain key support zones without showing any significant reversal signals. Low liquidity also partly reflects investors' cautious sentiment, while sellers have not shown strong intentions to exit their positions. Therefore, the current market condition can be viewed as an accumulation phase following the recent correction rather than a clear downtrend.

In the coming sessions, the market is likely to continue moving sideways with low trading liquidity. Under a positive scenario, if liquidity improves, capital flows broaden across sectors, and stronger consensus emerges among industry groups, this would serve as an important signal that the recent correction may have ended, thereby laying the foundation for a new upward trend.

In the positive medium-term case: In an optimistic scenario, easing inflationary pressures would create room for more flexible monetary policy, thereby supporting market valuations. Companies maintaining solid profit growth and trading at reasonable valuations – despite persistently high domestic interest rates – may present attractive investment opportunities for the medium to long term. Under this scenario, the VN-Index is expected to target the 2,000–2,100 point range in the second half of 2026. 

In the base medium-term case: Conversely, if net selling pressure from foreign investors persists and domestic interest rates continue to rise – thereby dampening market liquidity – the VN-Index may lack fresh, positive capital inflows. It would likely trade sideways within the 1,750–1,850 point range during the second half of 2026. Weakness in the VIC and VHM stock groups could cause the VN-Index to retest the lower bound of the previous sideways range – around the 1,580–1,600 point level. Additionally, renewed geopolitical tensions between Iran and the US, combined with the likelihood of the Fed maintaining high interest rates, could reinforce this negative scenario by pressuring exchange rates and foreign capital flows into emerging markets like Vietnam.

Strategy: Investors can capitalize on market corrections to deploy capital incrementally while maintaining a reasonable cash position for risk management, remaining ready to increase exposure once a market recovery trend is confirmed. Investors should avoid using leverage (margin) to "catch the bottom," as the market may form a secondary low. Furthermore, technical rebounds offer opportunities to restructure portfolios by divesting from companies that are underperforming relative to expectations.