Vietnam Insight

▶ VN-Index recorded a choppy trading session on Wednesday. During the morning session, the index at one point approached the 1,850-point mark, supported by gains in several large-cap stocks. However, selling pressure intensified in the afternoon, causing the index to lose momentum and close down by 3 points. As a result, the 1,850 level remains a resistance zone that the index has yet to break through due to insufficient support from market liquidity. Trading value remained below the 20-session average, while foreign investors continued to post modest net selling. Currently, foreign ownership across the market stands at 13%.

▶ At the close, the VN-Index fell by 3.32 points (-0.18%) to 1,827.12 points, while the HNX-Index declined by 1.63 points (-0.58%) to 279.48 points. Total trading value across the three exchanges reached VND 15.7 trillion, equivalent to approximately 648 million shares traded. Foreign investors recorded a net sell value of VND 267 billion, mainly in VHM, VIC, and VCB. On the other hand, notable net-bought stocks included HPG, HDB, and TCB.

▶ VPL (+4.12%), VCB (+1.03%), and TCB (+1.41%) were the three biggest contributors supporting the VN-Index. Conversely, VIC (-0.76%), VHM (-2.04%), and LPB (-1.73%) were the three stocks exerting the largest negative impact on the index.

▶ Technical view: VN-Index continued to trade within a narrow range of 1,800 to 1,850 points, with matched-order liquidity remaining at a low level. Market cash flow has yet to demonstrate strong conviction, reflecting a cautious investor sentiment as participants remain in wait-and-see mode ahead of key international developments and upcoming macroeconomic data releases. In the coming sessions, the market is likely to remain range-bound with subdued liquidity. However, if cash flow improves and broader sector participation becomes more synchronized, this would be a positive signal suggesting that the recent correction may have come to an end, thereby laying the groundwork for a new upward trend.

In the positive medium-term case: In an optimistic scenario, easing inflationary pressures would create room for more flexible monetary policy, thereby supporting market valuations. Companies maintaining solid profit growth and trading at reasonable valuations – despite persistently high domestic interest rates – may present attractive investment opportunities for the medium to long term. Under this scenario, the VN-Index is expected to target the 2,000–2,100 point range in the second half of 2026. 

In the base medium-term case: Conversely, if net selling pressure from foreign investors persists and domestic interest rates continue to rise – thereby dampening market liquidity – the VN-Index may lack fresh, positive capital inflows. It would likely trade sideways within the 1,750–1,850 point range during the second half of 2026. Weakness in the VIC and VHM stock groups could cause the VN-Index to retest the lower bound of the previous sideways range – around the 1,580–1,600 point level. Additionally, renewed geopolitical tensions between Iran and the US, combined with the likelihood of the Fed maintaining high interest rates, could reinforce this negative scenario by pressuring exchange rates and foreign capital flows into emerging markets like Vietnam.

Strategy: Investors can capitalize on market corrections to deploy capital incrementally while maintaining a reasonable cash position for risk management, remaining ready to increase exposure once a market recovery trend is confirmed. Investors should avoid using leverage (margin) to "catch the bottom," as the market may form a secondary low. Furthermore, technical rebounds offer opportunities to restructure portfolios by divesting from companies that are underperforming relative to expectations.