Vietnam Insight

▶ The market extended its gains in Thursday’s trading session, with VIC serving as the primary driver of the rally. VIC rose 2.6% and contributed nearly 10 points to the benchmark, accounting for almost the entire gain of the VN-Index. Overall, the VN-Index successfully broke above the 1,800 resistance level and is expected to continue its recovery toward higher levels. Market liquidity declined compared to the previous session, while foreign investors posted a modest net buying value of VND 210 billion. Despite the index’s advance, market breadth remained highly selective, with the upward momentum largely driven by VIC.

▶ At the close, the VN-Index gained 10.24 points (+0.56%) to finish at 1,831.56 points, while the HNX-Index rose 0.68 points (+0.24%) to 282.64 points. Total trading value across the three exchanges reached VND 16.8 trillion, equivalent to approximately 657 million shares traded. Foreign investors recorded net purchases of VND 210 billion, led by TCB (+VND 444 billion), HPG (+VND 116 billion), and VPB (+VND 102 billion). On the other hand, the most heavily net-sold stocks were VIX (-VND 68 billion), POW (-VND 49 billion), and SSI (-VND 42 billion).

▶ Technical perspective: The VN-Index maintained its positive momentum, closing at 1,831.56 points (+0.56%) after reaching an intraday high of 1,838.25 points. The index’s successful breakout above the key psychological threshold of 1,800 points indicates that the short-term uptrend remains firmly intact.

However, the VN-Index has now entered the resistance zone of 1,830-1,850 points, where profit-taking pressure and short-term volatility may increase. If the index can decisively break above the 1,850-point level, the upward trend is likely to extend further, with the next target set around the 1,900-point mark. On the downside, should a correction occur, the 1,800-point level is expected to serve as a significant support zone and will be a key area for investors to monitor closely.

In the positive medium-term case: In an optimistic scenario, easing inflationary pressures would create room for more flexible monetary policy, thereby supporting market valuations. Companies maintaining solid profit growth and trading at reasonable valuations—despite persistently high domestic interest rates—may present attractive investment opportunities for the medium to long term. Under this scenario, the VN-Index is expected to target the 2,000–2,100 point range in the second half of 2026. However, any recovery sessions during the remainder of July must demonstrate strong "bottom-fishing" demand.

In the base medium-term case: Conversely, if net selling pressure from foreign investors persists and domestic interest rates continue to rise—thereby dampening market liquidity—the VN-Index may lack fresh, positive capital inflows. It would likely trade sideways within the 1,750–1,850 point range during the second half of 2026. Weakness in the VIC and VHM stock groups could cause the VN-Index to retest the lower bound of the previous sideways range—around the 1,580–1,600 point level. Additionally, renewed geopolitical tensions between Iran and the US, combined with the likelihood of the Fed maintaining high interest rates, could reinforce this negative scenario by pressuring exchange rates and foreign capital flows into emerging markets like Vietnam.

Strategy: Investors can capitalize on market corrections to deploy capital incrementally while maintaining a reasonable cash position for risk management, remaining ready to increase exposure once a market recovery trend is confirmed. Investors should avoid using leverage (margin) to "catch the bottom," as the market may form a secondary low. Furthermore, technical rebounds offer opportunities to restructure portfolios by divesting from companies that are underperforming relative to expectations.