Macro/ Strategy

The Growth Portfolio delivered a -2.4% YTD return, mainly due to broad market weakness and persistent foreign net selling. GMD was the only positive contributor, gaining 32.6% YTD, while the remaining holdings have yet to reflect their underlying fundamental strength.

Portfolio earnings remained robust in 1H2026, with revenue up 54.8% YoY and net profit up 43.8% YoY, driven by growth across all sectors. The gap between earnings growth and share price performance suggests that valuations have yet to fully capture improving fundamentals, leaving room for potential re-rating as market sentiment recovers.

We expect portfolio performance to improve in 2H2026, supported by:

• Banking (TCB, MBB, VPB, HDB): Credit growth is expected to remain robust, while the reversal in foreign investor flows toward net buying since August could provide additional support for sector valuations.
• Public investment (HPG): Accelerating public investment disbursement is expected to directly support demand for steel and construction materials.
• Retail (MWG): Easing interest rates are expected to improve consumer purchasing power and stimulate consumption demand.