Vietnam Insight

▶ The oil and gas sector was the session's highlight as global oil prices rebounded, with several stocks—such as PLX, BSR, and PVS—posting solid gains. The rest of the market showed mixed performance, with little fluctuation relative to the reference level. The VN-Index surged by over 21 points during the morning session but gradually retreated in the afternoon, closing with a gain of just 4 points. Liquidity remained low during this tug-of-war session, reflecting investor hesitation. Foreign investors continued to be net sellers, with a net selling value of VND 768 billion.

▶ At the close, the VN-Index rose 4.56 points (+0.26%) to finish at 1,732.02 points, while the HNX-Index gained 3.68 points (+1.32%) to reach 282.32 points. Total liquidity across the three exchanges reached VND 16 trillion, corresponding to a trading volume of approximately 621 million shares. Foreign investors recorded a net sell of VND 768 billion; notable net-sold stocks included VIC (-VND 151 billion), VPB (-VND 117 billion), and SSI (-VND 65 billion). Conversely, notable net-bought stocks included FUESSVFL (+VND 61 billion), VNM (+VND 30 billion), and CTR (+VND 16 billion).

▶ Technical Perspective: The market experienced seesaw trading throughout the session; the VN-Index surged over 21 points during the morning but gradually pared gains—even dipping into negative territory in the afternoon—before closing with a modest rise of just over 4 points. Although the index managed to stay in the green, market breadth remained narrow and liquidity showed no significant improvement, indicating that capital flows have not yet truly returned. We believe the market is currently in a bottom-fishing phase, requiring simultaneous improvements in liquidity and breadth to confirm a recovery trend. In the short term, the VN-Index may continue to fluctuate within the 1,680–1,720 point range to absorb selling pressure and undergo re-accumulation, thereby laying the groundwork for a new recovery phase.

In the positive medium-term case: In an optimistic scenario, easing inflationary pressures would create room for more flexible monetary policy, thereby supporting market valuations. Companies maintaining solid profit growth and trading at reasonable valuations—despite persistently high domestic interest rates—may present attractive investment opportunities for the medium to long term. Under this scenario, the VN-Index is expected to target the 2,000–2,100 point range in the second half of 2026. However, any recovery sessions during the remainder of July must demonstrate strong "bottom-fishing" demand.

In the base medium-term case: Conversely, if net selling pressure from foreign investors persists and domestic interest rates continue to rise—thereby dampening market liquidity—the VN-Index may lack fresh, positive capital inflows. It would likely trade sideways within the 1,750–1,850 point range during the second half of 2026. Weakness in the VIC and VHM stock groups could cause the VN-Index to retest the lower bound of the previous sideways range—around the 1,580–1,600 point level. Additionally, renewed geopolitical tensions between Iran and the US, combined with the likelihood of the Fed maintaining high interest rates, could reinforce this negative scenario by pressuring exchange rates and foreign capital flows into emerging markets like Vietnam.

Strategy: Investors can capitalize on market corrections to deploy capital incrementally while maintaining a reasonable cash position for risk management, remaining ready to increase exposure once a market recovery trend is confirmed. Investors should avoid using leverage (margin) to "catch the bottom," as the market may form a secondary low. Furthermore, technical rebounds offer opportunities to restructure portfolios by divesting from companies that are underperforming relative to expectations.