Vietnam Insight

▶ The VN-Index continued its recovery momentum, supported by gains in Vingroup-related stocks. This development helped maintain the market’s positive sentiment, while the VN-Index reclaimed the psychological threshold of 1,700 points. Market liquidity declined compared to the previous session, with cash flow concentrated mainly in large-cap stocks. Aside from Vingroup-related names, the broader market recorded modest gains, with the Real Estate, Construction Materials, and Technology sectors showing more notable performance. Foreign investors continued to post net selling, although on an insignificant scale. Despite the market’s positive recovery signals, cash flow has yet to demonstrate broad-based participation across the market. Therefore, the VN-Index needs additional advancing sessions accompanied by improving liquidity to strengthen bottoming signals and confirm a short-term recovery trend.

▶ At the close, the VN-Index gained 24 points (+1.43%) to end at 1,704.68 points, while the HNX-Index rose 2.23 points (+0.83%) to 271.68 points. Total trading value across the three exchanges reached VND 15 trillion, equivalent to approximately 615 million shares traded. Foreign investors recorded net selling of VND 90 billion, with selling pressure continuing to concentrate mainly in the Financials and Real Estate sectors. The most heavily net-sold stocks were VHM (-VND 227 billion), VIX (-VND 76 billion), and HDB (-VND 68 billion). On the other hand, notable net-buying activity was seen in HPG (+VND 140 billion), VIC (+VND 121 billion), and CTG (+VND 72 billion).

▶ VIC (+2.62%), VHM (+6.14%), and HPG (+3.10%) were the three largest contributors supporting the VN-Index. On the downside, LPB (-1.68%), VPB (-1.02%), and STB (-1.38%) were the three stocks that exerted the greatest negative impact on the index.

▶ Technical View: Margin call-driven selling pressure has eased, while foreign investors have maintained selective net buying in stocks with solid business fundamentals, supporting the VN-Index’s positive recovery with limited resistance. Market breadth favored buyers, with the majority of stocks closing in positive territory. However, low liquidity during the recovery phase indicates that supply pressure is gradually weakening following recent forced-selling waves.

The VN-Index has yet to recover the full extent of its sharp decline on July 22, suggesting that, from a technical perspective, the current move remains a technical rebound. To reinforce bottoming signals, the market needs to sustain its upward momentum alongside improving liquidity and expanding market breadth, thereby confirming a sustainable return of capital flows. The 1,750–1,800 resistance zone will be a key area for assessing the true strength of bottom-fishing demand during this recovery phase. The VN-Index is still trading below both its MA50 and MA200, while the RSI stands at 36, indicating that the index has temporarily exited oversold territory but has not yet returned to an uptrend.

Statistics: The proportion of stocks trading above their MA200 has fallen below the 25% threshold, indicating that broad-based selling pressure is approaching an extreme level and the market may be entering a bottom-formation zone. Historically, this indicator has dropped below 25% only during several major correction periods, including July 2018, March 2020, November 2022, October 2023, and April 2025. Following these periods, the VN-Index recorded significant recovery rallies in the subsequent months.

Strategy: Following the recent sharp correction, valuations of many stocks have become more attractive, creating accumulation opportunities in companies with strong fundamentals and favorable growth prospects. Investors may take advantage of market pullbacks to gradually deploy capital while maintaining a reasonable cash allocation to manage risks and remain prepared to increase exposure once the market confirms its recovery trend. Investors should limit the use of leverage (margin) for bottom-fishing while the market has yet to confirm that the downtrend has ended. In addition, technical rebound sessions this week may provide an opportunity for investors to restructure their portfolios by reducing exposure to companies whose business performance has fallen short of expectations.