Vietnam Insight

▶ Although opening with a downward gap, bottom-buying demand at low price levels helped the VN-Index narrow its decline and even reverse course to gain points in the afternoon session, closing with a gain of nearly 12 points, corresponding to a recovery of about 30 points from the lowest price of the session. The group of stocks attracting the most capital and showing the largest recovery was the Securities sector (typically VCI and VND hitting the ceiling price), while the Bluechip group also contributed significantly to supporting the index (MWG, MSN, HPG, etc.). Liquidity improved, exceeding the 20-day average, indicating the presence of bottom-buying capital. This factor needs to be maintained in the following sessions to consolidate the market's recovery. Foreign investors sold heavily in VHM through negotiated transactions; overall, if this transaction is excluded, today was a net buying session for this group.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index rose 11.61 points (+0.7%), closing at 1,680.62 points; the HNX-Index increased 0.1 points (+0.04%), reaching 269.45 points. Liquidity across all three exchanges improved to 20.5 trillion VND, corresponding to approximately 902 million shares traded. Foreign investors net sold 1,978 billion VND, with VHM being the most heavily net sold stock at 2,944 billion VND. Excluding the large-value transaction in VHM, foreign investors were generally net buyers of the remaining stocks today, notably HPG, PNJ, VNM, MSN...

▶ Technical perspective: Forced selling during the ATO session created opportunities for investors outside the market to buy at discounted prices. In a short time, stocks faced strong selling pressure (especially in the real estate sector), but quickly attracted significant demand after falling to the floor price. Notably, foreign capital returned to strong buying during this period. Meanwhile, many corporate leaders began registering to buy shares (such as PDR, VCI), further supporting investor sentiment amidst historically low valuations.

Strong demand helped the VN-Index close in positive territory with a positive market breadth. As the remaining selling pressure from margin calls gradually subsides, we expect the market to continue recovering before facing profit-taking pressure in the short term. Technically, the VN-Index is still trading below the MA50/MA200, while the RSI is fluctuating near the oversold zone, indicating that sellers are still dominant, but the market is in a favorable state for a technical rebound. Liquidity and market breadth need to continue improving to reinforce the signal of a sustainable recovery trend.

Statistics: The percentage of stocks trading above the MA200 has fallen below 25%, indicating that widespread selling pressure is approaching its peak and the market may be entering a bottoming-out phase. Historically, this indicator has only fallen below 25% during some periods of sharp corrections such as July 2018, March 2020, November 2022, October 2023, or April 2025. Following these periods, the VN-Index recorded significant recovery in the following months.

Strategy: After the recent sharp correction, the valuations of many stocks have become more attractive, opening up opportunities for accumulation in companies with strong fundamentals and positive growth prospects. Investors can take advantage of market corrections to gradually disburse funds, while maintaining a reasonable cash ratio to manage risk and be ready to increase positions when the market trend confirms a recovery. Investors should limit the use of leverage (margin) to buy at the bottom when the market has not yet confirmed that the downtrend has stopped.