Vietnam Insight

Highlights:

Geopolitical risks remain elevated, while oil prices have resumed an upward trend.

PNJ and SJC have recently faced a crisis of consumer confidence in the gold and premium jewelry market.

The U.S. has imposed Section 301 tariffs on 60 trading partners, with Vietnam subject to a 12.5% tariff over allegations of inadequate enforcement against forced labor in its supply chain.

Aggregate Q2 2026 NPAT of more than 300 reporting companies is estimated to have increased by nearly 25% YoY, with growth primarily driven by the non-financial sector.

Assessment: Market sentiment remains under pressure from macroeconomic headwinds. Renewed tensions in the Middle East and the rebound in oil prices have heightened inflation concerns. Domestically, the trade deficit recorded in the first seven months of the year has put pressure on the exchange rate and market liquidity, while elevated interest rates continue to weigh on equity valuations. Although many listed companies reported solid Q2 2026 earnings, overall investor sentiment remains cautious.

Technical view: The VN-Index closed the week at 1,686 points, down 101.3 points (-5.7%), amid rising trading liquidity, reflecting heightened selling pressure. Although the 1,660-point level provided technical support and triggered a short-term rebound, we believe the near-term trend remains fragile as market liquidity has yet to show clear signs of improvement. A more sustainable recovery will require a period of consolidation, supported by stronger fund flows and a more favorable macroeconomic backdrop.

Investment Ideas: Investors may take advantage of market pullbacks to gradually accumulate fundamentally strong stocks while maintaining a prudent cash allocation for risk management. A healthy cash position also provides flexibility to increase exposure once the market confirms a sustainable recovery. We recommend limiting the use of margin to bottom-fish until there is clear confirmation that the downtrend has ended.