Macro/ Strategy

GDP growth accelerates in Q2

GDP growth in Q2 2026 reached 8.39% YoY, bringing 6M 2026 growth to 8.18% YoY — the highest 6-month growth rate in the 2022-2026 period. Following the growth momentum in the first half of 2026, the Government aims for 11.9% growth in the second half of 2026 to achieve double-digit growth targets for 2026.

Inflation cools as oil prices reverse

After surging on the earlier oil-price shock, CPI began to reverse course in June: headline CPI fell 0.39% MoM, mainly as gasoline prices fell 10.05% and diesel fell 10.63% in line with world oil prices. However, US and Iran started their battle again in July. This time, not only the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, but also Red Sea was threatened. The Red Sea was an alternate route for the Strait of Hormuz. The oil price increased to nearly USD 90 per barrel once again. The inflation risk re-appeared.

Quarter-end liquidity squeeze as credit growth moderates

Banking-system liquidity came under visible pressure toward the end of Q2: the overnight interbank rate spiked to 12.49% on 30 June 2026 amid quarter-end funding demand, before easing quickly to around 6% in the first week of July. Meanwhile, economy-wide credit growth reached 7.73% YTD as of end-June — notably below the 9.91% pace seen over the same period in 2025, suggesting credit expansion has slowed even as policy remains broadly growth-supportive.