Vietnam Insight

▶ The VN-Index staged a spectacular reversal on Thursday, gaining 22 points after the ATC (After-Trading Closing) session. The index faced selling pressure in the morning and even retreated to 1,757 at one point, representing a drop of approximately 25 points. However, strong buying pressure emerged at this crucial support level, helping the VN-Index recover continuously and close at 1,800 points. VIC and VHM played a vital role in supporting the index, contributing approximately 16 points to the market's increase. In addition, the banking sector also recovered well, notably ACB, STB, HDB… Several individual stocks recorded good reversals with improved liquidity, such as HCM and NVL.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index rose 22.12 points (+1.24%), closing at 1,804.24 points. The HNX-Index fell 2.75 points (-0.94%), reaching 288.32 points. Liquidity across all three exchanges increased to 20.8 trillion VND, corresponding to approximately 887 million shares traded. Foreign investors maintained a relatively balanced buying and selling activity during the session, with only a slight net selling of about 29 billion VND. The stocks experiencing the strongest net selling were PNJ (-147 billion VND), SSI (-132 billion VND), and FPT (-95 billion VND)... Conversely, typical net buying included VIC (+250 billion VND), ACB (+218 billion VND), and VHM (+153 billion VND)... 

▶ Technical Perspective: The VN-Index started the session poorly due to strong selling pressure, causing many stocks to fall sharply in the first half of the morning session. At one point, the index lost more than 20 points and fell below the MA200 line, putting significant pressure on investor sentiment. However, strong buying demand emerged at this important support level, helping the VN-Index recover continuously and close at 1,800 points. The recovery was led by the real estate and securities sectors before spreading to most other sectors. Foreign investors also reversed course and showed positive performance in the latter half of the trading session. Significantly improved liquidity is a positive sign, reinforcing our view that the market is in a consolidation phase within the 1,750–1,850 point range, laying the groundwork for a move toward the 2,000–2,100 point range in the second half of 2026. However, continued improvement and expansion of capital flows are needed to confirm a sustainable upward trend.

In the base medium-term scenario: In an optimistic scenario, a less stringent inflation outlook will create room for more flexible monetary policy, supporting market valuations. Companies maintaining strong profit growth and trading at appropriate valuations despite high domestic interest rates could present good investment opportunities for the medium to long term. Under this scenario, the VN-Index is expected to reach the 2,000-2,100 point range in the second half of 2026.

In the negative medium-term scenario: Conversely, if net selling pressure from foreign investors continues, and domestic interest rates continue to rise, leading to decreased market liquidity, the VN-Index may lack positive new capital inflows and is likely to consolidate sideways within the 1,750-1,850 point range in the second half of 2026. Weakening VIC and VHM stocks could cause the VN-Index to retest the lower boundary of the previous sideways range – around 1,580 points. In addition, escalating geopolitical tensions between Iran and the US, along with the possibility of the Fed maintaining high interest rates, could be external factors contributing to this negative scenario, putting pressure on exchange rates and foreign capital flows into emerging markets like Vietnam.

Strategy: Investors can focus on selecting stocks with sideways consolidation price structures and strong business growth, rather than solely focusing on VN-Index fluctuations for medium-term positions. In the short term, consider stocks that have experienced heavy selling pressure and are showing signs of recovery, such as those in the insurance, technology, and real estate sectors. Investors should limit the use of margin trading during this period when the trend is not clearly defined.