Vietnam Insight

▶ The VN-Index successfully tested the 1,775 level, which was also the bottom zone established during the decline in June. Although VN-Index briefly fell by about 25 points compared to the reference price, buying pressure at lower price levels helped many stocks reverse and rise, bringing the index to a 6-point close. Many banking stocks recorded a good recovery, notably SHB, ACB, and STB, creating significant support for the overall index. In addition, the oil and gas sector also performed favorably from the start of the session due to the surge in global oil prices. Liquidity fell below the 20-day average, indicating that while buying pressure was present, the general sentiment remained cautious about the market's recovery prospects.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index increased by 6.09 points (+0.34%), closing at 1,806.63 points. The HNX-Index increased by 5.44 points (+1.86%), reaching 297.34 points. Liquidity across all three exchanges fell to 16 trillion VND, corresponding to approximately 661 million shares traded. Foreign investors continued to net sell 193 billion VND. The stocks with the strongest net selling were CTG (-107 billion VND), VIC (-93 billion VND), and VPB (-84 billion VND)... Conversely, typical net buying included BSR (+74 billion VND), PNJ (+68 billion VND), and SHB (+43 billion VND)... 

▶ Technical perspective: In the morning session, the VN-Index continued to face downward pressure, at one point falling nearly 20 points. In the afternoon session, the index recovered strongly thanks to information that the Ministry of Construction was considering adjusting or eliminating the proposal on "limited-term ownership of apartments," helping the VN-Index rise about 32 points from its low and close in positive territory. Demand continued around the MA200 (1,770 points), indicating this remains an important support zone. If the index holds this zone and liquidity improves, the uptrend in the second half of 2026 could be confirmed. Conversely, low liquidity during the rebounds suggests this was primarily a technical rebound.

In the base medium-term scenario: In an optimistic scenario, a less stressful inflation outlook would create room for more flexible monetary policy, supporting market valuations. Businesses maintaining strong profit growth and trading at appropriate valuations despite high domestic interest rates could present good investment opportunities for the medium to long term. In this scenario, the VN-Index is expected to reach the 2,000-2,100 point range in the second half of 2026.

In a negative medium-term scenario: Conversely, if net selling pressure from foreign investors continues, and domestic interest rates continue to rise, leading to decreased market liquidity, the VN-Index may lack positive new capital inflows and is likely to consolidate sideways within the 1,750-1,850 point range in the second half of 2026. Furthermore, escalating geopolitical tensions between Iran and the US, along with the possibility of the Fed maintaining high interest rates, could be external factors contributing to this negative scenario, putting pressure on exchange rates and foreign capital flows into emerging markets like Vietnam.

Strategy: Investors can focus on selecting stocks with sideways consolidation price structures and strong business growth, rather than solely focusing on VN-Index fluctuations for medium-term positions. In the short term, consider stocks that have experienced heavy selling pressure and are showing signs of recovery, such as those in the insurance, technology, and real estate sectors. Investors should limit the use of margin trading during this period when the trend is not clearly defined.