Vietnam Insight

▶ The market continued its recovery on Wednesday, helping the VN-Index record a gain of 5.45 points and close at 1,853.70. The upward momentum came from the Fertilizer and Oil & Gas sector following news of rising oil prices, the Financial sector continued to attract capital, and large-cap stocks like PNJ recovered from their losses and MSN reversed its downward trend, helping to ease pressure on the index. Market liquidity increased slightly to approximately the 20-day average, while foreign investors returned to net selling of over 500 billion VND.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index rose 5.45 points (+0.29%), closing at 1,853.70 points; the HNX-Index rose 6.65 points (+2.26%), reaching 300.39 points. Liquidity on all three exchanges increased slightly to 19.4 trillion VND, corresponding to approximately 790 million shares traded. Foreign investors returned to net selling with a value of 547 billion VND during the session. The stocks with the strongest net selling were PNJ, MSN, and VHM... Conversely, typical net buying included VNM, MBB, and VIC… 

▶ Technical perspective: The VN-Index continues to fluctuate around the MA20 line amidst low liquidity. After two sessions absorbing short-term supply, the index is gradually forming a higher bottom, reflecting signs of improved demand while selling pressure has significantly eased. Notably, capital is mainly concentrated in the banking and securities sectors – the two leading stock groups in the current market performance.

In the short term, we expect the VN-Index to continue consolidating in the 1,850–1,870 point range to consolidate the price base before entering a new upward phase. To confirm the recovery trend and complete the double bottom pattern, the index needs a convincing breakout above 1,880 points with high trading volume.

In the base medium-term scenario: A peace agreement between the US and Iran could help reduce inflationary pressure, improve global growth prospects, and support capital flows back to emerging markets, including Vietnam, in the second half of 2026. Besides external factors, the domestic market is also supported by policies promoting economic growth, abundant liquidity, and expectations of increased passive capital flows after Vietnam is officially upgraded to emerging market status by FTSE Russell from September 2026. The synergy of these factors could create momentum for the market to enter a new growth cycle, with the VN-Index aiming for a target range of 2,000–2,100 points in a positive scenario.

In the negative medium-term scenario: Global reserves have decreased sharply during the recent war period. If no agreement is reached in June-July, oil prices are likely to surge during the peak summer months. Given the negative developments, risky asset classes in general and the VN-Index face a deeper correction (retesting the 1,580 point level).

Strategy: Investors can focus on selecting stocks with sideways consolidation and strong business growth rather than solely focusing on VN-Index fluctuations for medium-term positions. In the short term, consider stocks that have been heavily sold off and are showing signs of recovery, such as insurance, technology, and real estate stocks. Investors should limit the use of margin trading during this period when the trend is not clearly defined.